Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

CON 40 % (40)
LAB 29 % (30)
LD 21 %(18)

And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21

The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three.

The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans.

On that specific issue the paper reports: “There are risks too for Labour in its opposition to Tory plans to give some married couples a tax break. Despite Conservative confusion over who would gain and how the tax cut could be paid for, 65% think a cut for couples with children is a good idea, against 29% who oppose one.

Among married couples, backing rises to 78%. Among definite Labour supporters, it is 70% – remarkably one point higher than among Tories.”

The big party move has been the Lib Dem increase and as we have seen in several polls in recent months – when the LDs move forward Labour tends to be pegged back.

Again the Tories maintain their solid 40% position and have not been out of the 40s with the firm since June 2009.

This lead would produce a majority Cameron government – just.

My understanding is that also polling this weekend was MORI. We’ll probably have to wait until Saturday to get the details.

Mike Smithson

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