So what does this do to the seat calculations?

So what does this do to the seat calculations?

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Ipsos-MORI Is it really so different in the marginals? I’m just catching up with the Ipsos-MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polls which have been highlighted by Anthony Wells at UKPR who is suggesting it provides further evidence that opinion is moving differently in the LAB>CON marginals. For what MORI has done is not only to show the aggregate data but to identify the shares by seat category with a particular emphasis on the marginals – something that is…

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Time to be taking your profits on the “Labour surge”?

Time to be taking your profits on the “Labour surge”?

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Sporting Index Is it Brown that’s now looking a bit vulnerable? One of the great attractions of spread-betting is that you can close positions down and pocket any profits months or even years before the event has been resolved. Another attraction if you are really serious is that you can operate on a credit basis which means you don’t have to put up any money when you make your bet. So in the early hours of Sunday morning after seeing…

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Dare you bet that the Angus Reid algorithm is wrong?

Dare you bet that the Angus Reid algorithm is wrong?

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Could its mathematics be right for 2010? Ever since the Angus Reid research director, Andy Morris, sent me the first spread-sheets of the first PB/Angus Reid poll last October I have known that there would come a moment when the firm’s methodological approach would leave it isolated from the rest. As those who follow these things will know the main characteristics of AR have been its consistency from survey to survey and the fact that it is reporting a much…

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So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

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Could Brown hang on even if he loses his majority? Scenario: 3pm on May 7th. The last few constituencies are declaring but the result has been known for some hours. For the first time in 36 years, no party has won an overall majority. It’s always been quite a strong possibility: if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen seats they lose their majority but the Tories need to gain well over a hundred to win outright. That’s…

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ComRes: “37 percent say Blair should face war crime charges”

ComRes: “37 percent say Blair should face war crime charges”

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…and 60% say Brown should share responsibility More information has just been published from the weekend ComRes poll and it doesn’t make comfortable reading for either Blair and his successor. A majority believes that Gordon Brown should share the blame while almost almost four in 10 people believe that Blair should face a war crimes trial over the 2003 invasion. The findings are a setback for Brown, who will give evidence to the Chilcot inquiry into the war in the…

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PB Index: Con Majority 32 (-18)

PB Index: Con Majority 32 (-18)

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CON SPREAD RANGES —– Sporting Index 334 – 339 ExtraBet 342 – 350 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 222 – 227 ExtraBet 211 – 220 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53 – 54 Betfair Line market There’ve been some sharp moves on the betting markets in the wake of the latest polling. Our PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate a result based on betting prices, has the projected…

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Will the new Lib Dem Blue save a few seats?

Will the new Lib Dem Blue save a few seats?

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Is this a case of political cross-dressing? Thanks to those on the previous thread who pointed this out but the Lib Dems have got themselves a new livery for the general election – and there’s a heavy tinge of blue about it. Given that their main election challenge will be in trying to hold on to many of their seats in the face strong challenges from the Tories it’s hard to conclude that this is not deliberate. For incumbent Lib…

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Is the Indy’s splash based on a question that does not exist?

Is the Indy’s splash based on a question that does not exist?

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And has it missed the main story from its poll? Let there be no doubt – the latest poll from ComRes for the Independent showing that the Tory lead is down to just 7% is bad news for Cameron and his team – particularly as it follows a series of such poll findings. So why the devil has the paper ignored the main story from the poll it spent good money on and splashed a finding that does not even…

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