This is the second part of an examination by long-time PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke, into the level of Tory lead that the party will need at the general election in order to ensure a majority. If you have not read Part 1 then read that first before going onto this continuation What lead do the Tories need – Part 2? How to measure the probable unwind? The simplest thing to do would be to set the three effects as…
Based on the concept of a pendulum – not a ratchet Later today we’ll be introducing a totally new commons seat calculator that has been developed by long-standing PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke. This will be published here sometime after lunch. It’s stems from the thinking outlined in Andy’s initial post yesterday in which he argued for the merits of “pendulum thinking” as we seek to project the coming election rather than the mind-set of “the ratchet.” For the conventional…
The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…
We keep hearing that the Conservatives will need a lead of “about 11%†to win – but is this really the case? There has been a bias towards Labour since Major won a majority on a 7.5% lead and the decrease in the hold that the “Big 2†have over the vote and seats doesn’t ease things. But the bias is not a fixed law of Nature. In the first of two guest slots statistician and PB regular Andy Cooke…
CON 39 % (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And it reports the lowest Tory share since May New is just coming in of the latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph which has the lead down to just 9% and will provide encouragement for Brown Central. It means that the last six published polls have all had Labour in the 30s with the last four of them putting the Tories under 40. This does look like a trend….
Betfair Politics The chart above is from the Betfair line market where punters have bets at evens with each other on what the parties will get at the coming election. Once you get used to how it works it’s quite a neat form of betting. As can be seen the past three months have not shown much movement apart from the Tory wobble in the past week following the spate of polls having both them and Labour in the 30s….
How’s the increasing scepticism going to play? One of David Cameron’s early acts in detoxifying the Conservative brand was the increased focus on the environment and combating climate change. That was in a different, pre-recession world and the legacy of those policy decisions could be about to cause the Tory leadership problems. The BBC-commissioned Populus poll reports a significant shift in public attitudes on climate change, with the proportion who don’t think global warming is taking place having increased from…
There’s a new poll out tonight from Angus Reid on voter’s attitudes towards electoral reform – particularly the planned alternative vote system on which a referendum is planned and which MPs will decide upon this month. The survey took place amongst a sample of 2,010 people on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week while Labour’s plans were making the news. What strikes you immediately from the numbers above is how contradictory the response it. That the first question sees the…