The map that changed my view of the election I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals. For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome. The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by…
CON 40% (41) LAB 30 % (28) LD 20 %(19) Is Andy Cooke starting to have an influence? The Populus poll for February is just out and provides further data which could be used to support the notion of a hung parliament. But well done the Times in its report on the poll for raising the question of how much the standard projections can be relied upon. Peter Riddell writes after giving the standard projection – “These estimates assume a…
This is the second part of an examination by long-time PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke, into the level of Tory lead that the party will need at the general election in order to ensure a majority. If you have not read Part 1 then read that first before going onto this continuation What lead do the Tories need – Part 2? How to measure the probable unwind? The simplest thing to do would be to set the three effects as…
Based on the concept of a pendulum – not a ratchet Later today we’ll be introducing a totally new commons seat calculator that has been developed by long-standing PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke. This will be published here sometime after lunch. It’s stems from the thinking outlined in Andy’s initial post yesterday in which he argued for the merits of “pendulum thinking” as we seek to project the coming election rather than the mind-set of “the ratchet.” For the conventional…
The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…
We keep hearing that the Conservatives will need a lead of “about 11%†to win – but is this really the case? There has been a bias towards Labour since Major won a majority on a 7.5% lead and the decrease in the hold that the “Big 2†have over the vote and seats doesn’t ease things. But the bias is not a fixed law of Nature. In the first of two guest slots statistician and PB regular Andy Cooke…
CON 39 % (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And it reports the lowest Tory share since May New is just coming in of the latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph which has the lead down to just 9% and will provide encouragement for Brown Central. It means that the last six published polls have all had Labour in the 30s with the last four of them putting the Tories under 40. This does look like a trend….
Betfair Politics The chart above is from the Betfair line market where punters have bets at evens with each other on what the parties will get at the coming election. Once you get used to how it works it’s quite a neat form of betting. As can be seen the past three months have not shown much movement apart from the Tory wobble in the past week following the spate of polls having both them and Labour in the 30s….