Will it be up, down, or about the same? A couple of weeks back Nick Palmer, MP, wrote that he was looking forward to reading my thoughts on turnout and the reason I’ve waited for so long is that, frankly, I’m only now forming a view. For the big thing about this election is that for only the second time in 31 years is there a serious chance of the ruling party losing power. That of itself adds an extra…
Could this be where power ends up resting? (Anybody who watched last week’s Question Time from Belfast would have been left in no doubt about the complexities and continuing tensions within Northern Ireland politics. With all sorts of different developments that could have an impact on the UK outcome I’ve asked long-standing PBer, Yokel, to give us a run-down. In this first part he looks at the big picture – then in future posts he’ll examine the eight critical seats….
I heard this evening that Downing Street is aware that it cannot rely on the strict UNS calculation that the Tories need a 10-11% gap in the popular vote just to ensure an overall majority. Clearly as the polls have got a bit tighter then all considerations have to be examined should Brown decide to do what he didn’t do in October 2007, call a general election when things looked favourable to his party. For the main point about going…
Was it this rather than “scum” that will seal his fate? This is how, as of 4pm, the Labour MP for Telford, David Wright, was dealing on his website with the row that has erupted about him. In the betting there did not appear to be a betting market on whether Telford MP will manage to hold on to his position as a government whip but we could see one this evening. For an object lesson in how not to…
Wikimedia Can we identify what’s driving the votes? Over the past week or so we’ve been putting a lot of focus on the marginals – the seats where the fates of Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron will be decided. For there has been a fair bit of polling evidence, still far from conclusive, that there have been sharper moves to the Tories in these places than in the country as a whole. A key part of the Andy Cooke thesis,…
(The above is a revised seat model by long-standing PBers and statistician, Andy Cooke – the first version of which was published here and here after two closely argued papers that questioned the standard orthodoxy about the UNS – the uniform national swing which is the traditional, if not always accurate of projecting the seat totals in the house of commons. Since then there have been no serious defences of the UNS except that this is how it has always…
Has he “launched” his bid too early? There’s a story running on the Daily Mail site suggesting that Miliband (D) has started a nationwide tour as part of an effort to drum up support ahead of the leadership contest that is expected after the general election. An email has gone out to party activists saying that Miliband is holding number of public meetings across the country to answer questions on a wide range of issues, including, and not just restricted…
What’ll be the impact of the Brown/Morgan programme? At this stage before the general election the only thing that matters is whether Brown’s much-hyped TV programme with Piers Morgan is going to cause any more people to vote Labour in the seats where it matters. It’s certainly blanked out the rest of the political news agenda including yesterday’s explosive row between Andy Burnham and Andrew Lansley which Labour might have gained from. On the thread overnight comments were broadly favourable….