Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow? One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else – and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be going into this election using the same broad methodology as in 2005. All the other firms doing monthly surveys – YouGov, ComRes, Angus Reid and Ipsos-MORI – are either…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 17%(19) So what IS going to move the numbers? The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable – unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft – that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers. The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the 40s while the Labour recovery appears to have run out of steam a bit. With the Lib Dems down two then…
UPDATED But the swing is only two points better A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points – but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing. This compares with a swing of 4.5% in recent national YouGov polls. As Anthony Wells points out at UKPR the differential is consistent with previous YouGov marginals polls. Here is the link. I’m…
BBC News There’s been news within the past half hour that the Electoral Commission is to rule that donations to the Tory party by a company owned the controversial deputy chair, Michael Ashcroft, have been declared to be legal. The body has been examining 173 donations totally more than five million pounds in the five years up to February 2008. This will obviously help him and his party and take some of the sting away from the attacks. If the…
What’ll be the consequences in the marginals? Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun? For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented on the previous thread: “Last night’s news was dominated by the announcement of the Leader Debates – Clegg was side by side on split screen with Brown and Cameron…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (33) LD 19%(16) And the Lib Dems move up three Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight’s numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up three. Given that the big political story has continued to be Lord Aschroft’s tax affairs then the Tories will be a tad relieved that…
Reproduced from the London Evening Standard CON 39% (32) LAB 35% (39) LD 17%(22) YouGov finds a bigger Tory swing in London A new YouGov poll for tonight’s London Evening Standard suggests that the Tories might be on target to make a dozen gains in the capital at the election. The shares are above with the changes since the 2005 general election. The swing of 5.5% is higher than that we’ve seen in national YouGov polls taken over the past…
Uniform National Swing – an investigation I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part one of three. My assumptions about the distortions to UNS that have accumulated and are likely (in my opinion) to rebound have been controversial to some. That’s fine – the point has always been to give you information to ponder – you make your own…