YouGov Daily poll Mar 18 Mar 17 CONSERVATIVES 36% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3% The Tory lead remains at 4 points So there’s not really a lot to say. Peter Kellner has published a statement on revisions to their methodology which I plan to look at tomorrow. Mike Smithson
An invitation to participants to do a PB guest slot Tomorrow an academic conference starts in Manchester on forecasting the general election. A series of papers are going to be presented and all of them, as far as I can gather, suggest that there will be a hung parliament. I’ve already invited Matt Lebo of Stony Brook University in New York to do a guest slot on his model that seeks to predict outcomes from from prime ministerial approval ratings….
Populus
YouGov May 1 2008 But was it based on a different weighting structure? Nobody can dispute that Boris Johnson’s election as London mayor on May 2nd 2008 was a sensational achievement for YouGov. For the second mayoral election in a row they got the final result correct to within one percent at a time when they were completely out of line with all the other pollsters. I, for one, made a fair bit of money betting on the YouGov view…
YouGov Daily poll Mar 17 Mar 16 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3.5% This has not come from my usual source but I am told that it is what is being reported in the print edition of tomorrow’s Sun. So, once again, a very different view of the world from the two online pollsters who both operate with polling panels. We have discussed at length before the possible…
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 332-337 (+2) 223-228 (-2) 57-60 (+2) Extrabet 328-333 (-2) 230-235 (+2) 57-60 (nc) Betfair 333-336 227-231 53.5-56.5
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 21% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 8% Lib Dems up three as others slump The latest in the exclusive Politicalbetting/Angus Reid polling series is just out and shows one big major change – a slump in support for “others” to 14%. This is the lowest it has ever been and brings AR more into line with other firms. Alas for Brown…
Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I’m getting a lot of attention from both big parties – this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs is clearly a key strategy but I just wonder whether this approach is right. To me it shows simplistic thinking which might look smart at Labour HQ but is not…