YouGov Daily poll Mar 16 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% And the LD bounce starts to fade So the only change tonight is a two point drop in the Lib Dem share – the Tory and Labour shares stay the same. Not a lot else to say really. Mike Smithson
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority government tonight’s spread have the Tory number on all three markets being above the critical number – if not by very much. There hasn’t been much movement and clearly everything is being driven by the polls. Mike Smithson
Will “change” be the big issue? Which of these two opposing thoughts do you think you would be most likely to agree with? CON voters LAB Voters LD Voters TOTAL Continuity in important, stick with Labour 2% 78% 25% 27% Time for change 98% 25% 74% 68% This is from the latest ICM poll – see data here. The PB survey We’ve already had a great response to the survey which is being carried out by Woodnorton Associates. If you…
WhatGas.com How will this go down in the marginals? The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is a warning by the AA that the price of a litre could “within day” hit the £1.20 a litre mark. This would make it more expensive than during the last peak in July 2008 which also coincided with Labour worst position in the opinion polls. This was looked at here in a post at the end of December when I posed the…
YouGov Daily poll Mar 15 Mar 12 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3% Is this down to the conference coverage? So the third of tonight’s polls also has the Tory lead increasing – but this is down to Labour moving down a notch while the blue share stays the same. The big news is the Lib Dem bounce which, almost certainly, is down to the extensive coverage of…
Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 15 Mar 8 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 4.5% The first published Opinium poll for the Daily Express was only last week and now we have a second. The trend is sharply to the Tories which reinforces what we saw earlier with ICM. Opinium operates on-line with a polling panel and like other firms that operate in this way it is reporting much bigger…
ICM ICM Guardian Mar 14 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 40% 38% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5% Tories back in the 40s in new ICM poll? Tonight’s ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and has welcome news for the Tories after the set-back for them in the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph over the weekend. All this moves away from hung parliament territory and could have an impact on…
BBC What this going to do to the leadership betting? A couple of month ago I started ploughing money on the post-December 31 2010 option in the Brown exit date betting after the PM had made comments similar to his interview on Woman’s Hour this morning. Even if he’s defeated and Cameron has a majority it’s seems clear to me that he is not going to give up the job he strove after for so long. So what’s this going…