Blow for Brown as the approval gap widens

Blow for Brown as the approval gap widens

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Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly +/- BROWN 33% (36) 61% (60) -4 CAMERON 49% (48) 39% (44) +6 CLEGG 47% (43) 27% (31) +8 YouGov Sunday Times: FW Mar 19 (Mar 5) Are these a better pointer than voting intentions? There is a theory, supported by polling for the 1992 general election, that leader approval ratings are a better indicator of electoral outcomes than the standard voting intention findings. I sort of buy into…

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Is Labour more vulnerable on voter registration?

Is Labour more vulnerable on voter registration?

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ICM Mar 20 data Voted in 2005 Aged 18 – 24 2010 CON voters 89.9% 3.7% 2010 LAB voters 81.6% 8.9% 2010 Lib Dem voters 88.9% 4.4% Is this a problem with having greater appeal to the young? The table shows two sets of figures from the latest ICM poll: the proportion who voted for one of the main parties in 2005 and the proportion of their overall support now coming from the 18-24 old age-group. This is relevant because…

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Is Labour’s plan to big-up the BNP?

Is Labour’s plan to big-up the BNP?

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Will this get the core vote out in the marginals? On the latest Radio 4’s Any Questions the schools secretary, Ed Balls, made a revealing comment on what I took to be part of Labour’s defence strategy in the marginals. When being pressed over UNITE’s financial support for Labour including his own seat on the outskirts of Leeds he replied: ” “Unite members make contributions from their pay packets to help the fight against the BNP…..”. That helped him handle…

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But is “Glam Sam Cam” the big political story?

But is “Glam Sam Cam” the big political story?

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What does it tell us about her and Dave? Today’s main political stories on the front pages are features above – but the one I guess the one that will get the most attention is a series of pictures of Samantha Cameron in the Mail on Sunday. You can see it being trailed heavily on the MoS’s front page alongside the “cash for influence” report. Inside we read of how the photo-shoot came to happen a couple of years after…

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Have we become immune to this sort of stuff?

Have we become immune to this sort of stuff?

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Sunday Times “….Byers, who held three cabinet portfolios from 1998 to 2002, gave specific examples of how he claimed he had changed government policy by lobbying his cabinet friends. He claimed to have struck a secret deal with Lord Adonis, the transport secretary, last year on behalf of National Express, which he said was seeking to jettison a loss-making East Coast rail franchise without penalties. Byers said: “We agreed with Andrew … he would be publicly very critical of National…

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But YouGov now has a bigger lead than ICM

But YouGov now has a bigger lead than ICM

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YouGov Daily poll Mar 19 Mar 18 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 3.5% So what are we to make of it all? A second poll tonight, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, is reported by Sky to have an increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party moving to 38% while Labour is down to 31%. So two very different trends from the two pollsters which gamblers seem…

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New ICM poll has the lead down to just six

New ICM poll has the lead down to just six

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ICM ICM News of the World Mar 19 Mar 14 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 6% Does this make NOM more likely? A new News of the World ICM poll brings bad news for the Tories after what appeared to have been a very good week for them. The moves, all within the margin of error, has the gap down top just six points. Both the Tories and…

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Does this Tory ad flatter Gordon too much?

Does this Tory ad flatter Gordon too much?

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Doesn’t the uniform make him look better than he is? Launched this morning is the latest Tory poster which seeks to link Brown with UNITE with the BA strike. Politically it’s clearly the right thing to do – but has the party made a cock-up in the way it’s executed. To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good. The idea of Brown as “captain of the…

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