Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Brown/Cameron/Clegg ..” Satisfied Dissatisfied +/- BROWN 34% (36) 60% (57) -5 CAMERON 42% (44) 42% (40) -4 CLEGG 45% (44) 25% (27) +8 Ipsos-MORI Mar 21 (Feb 22) And Cameron gets his worst ratings since 2008 I’ve now had advance sight of the Ipsos-MORI leader approval ratings for March – a form of questioning that has been asked in the same way by the firm for more than a third of a century. The numbers are…
Ipsos-MORI Does this mark a turning point? Whilst checking out the Ipsos-MORI website overnight I came across a fascinating paper on what the pollster describes as the “Presidentialisation’ of British politics? The chart is self-explanatory – the leader is becoming more important in the eyes of voters and we could reach a point at this election when it takes over as the main driver. The MORI paper goes on: “..In fact, past evidence has suggested that voters tend to underestimate…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 23 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 33% 32% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% The LDs drop two Another unexciting daily poll sees very little change except for the LDs to drop two and for Labour and the Tories to move up one. The Tories might have expected a Sam Cam Mam boost but alas that doesn’t seem to have happened. What is odd about YouGov is…
A new poll tonight of London seats reports a big move back to the Tories compared with the last such poll just three weeks ago. The shares are: CON 40 (+1): LAB 31 (-4): LD 18 (+1). Compared with the 2005 general election in the capital this represents an 8% swing which puts it at Angus Reid levels. Mike Smithson
Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…
SkyNews
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 22 Mar 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 5% More jitters for the blue team Tonight’s daily poll for the Sun, where the fieldwork finished at 5pm, reports a narrowing of the lead from 7% on Sunday to just 4% this evening. This is all getting very tight as we move into the final pre-campaign stage. For YouGov follows ICM and Optimum…
Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 22 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 15% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6.5% “Others” jump to a massive 18 points Only the third national opinion poll to be published from new kid on the block, Opinium for the Daily Express, is out tonight and has the Tory lead narrowing to seven points while others move up to 18%. This is the biggest share to be published by the…