What about 50/1 to win most seats? This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate – held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation – was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share. In sport, the phrase…
YouGov daily poll Apr 16 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 37% LABOUR 28% 31% LIB DEMS 30% 22% But can the UNS work with these sorts of shifts? So the rumours were right and the Lib Dems have over-taken Labour – at the expense of drops of 4 and 3 for the Tories and Labour. But how seriously can we take the UNS predictions with these sorts of changes? The truth is that nobody really knows how such a result would…
Reports are buzzing about that the Lib Dems have moved into second place in a poll due out tonight. I assume it is YouGov – no doubt we will find out soon. Mike Smithson
Betfair Politics Mike Smithson
I’ve just got back from Manchester to find an email waiting about the ComRes poll from Andrew Hawkins, CEO of ComRes. He writes:- “The final analysis of the ComRes instant poll for last night’s ITV News at Ten among those watching the First Election Debate, extrapolated across the GB adult population as a whole, puts the Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 28% and Liberal Democrats on 24%. This compares to the ComRes poll broadcast on ITV News at Ten on…
Will they be able to put Nick back in the box? To acquire Marf originals or prints check out her site – LondonSketchbook.com
Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price. This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually…
Can Clegg’s party beat the 1983 share? So, the first round of debates is over, and by a clear margin all of the major post-debate polls have declared Nick Clegg to be the winner. (For what it’s worth, I thought Clegg was slightly ahead of Cameron, and both were well ahead of Brown.) So what happens now? We’ve already seen a Lib Dem bounce of four points in today’s YouGov – how will Clegg’s debate performance translate into the Lib…