So who’s winning so far? UPDATE: ITV poll: Clegg 43 Cameron 26 Brown 20 YouGov: Clegg 51 Cameron 29 Brown 19 Angus Reid: Clegg 46 Cameron 21 Brown 19 Live results from Angus Reid’s polling panel are available here. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) The Election Game, covering over 30 countries, is at www.electiongame.co.uk
Will the debate be an historic event or a damp squib? … and big jump for Lib Dems with You Gov So, just 50 years after Kennedy and Nixon, the UK finally joins the democracies that hold election debates between leaders. Internationally, a three-way debate is fairly rare (the Bush-Clinton-Perot matchup of 1992 a notable exception) – most are either the “big two” leaders (eg US, France, Germany, Australia) or more of an all-party debate (eg Canada, Austria). Having progressed…
TNS-BMRB Apr 13 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 33% 33% LIB DEMS 22% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% TNS-BRMB – the face to face pollster that asks interviewees to input their voting intentions on a lap-top – has a new poll out with the gap down to just three points. Like all the surveys we have seen from the firm the field-work took an entire week to carry out finishing off on Tuesday. So some…
Will this give us the first indication? Tonight’s a massive night for political betting and for the pollsters. The sponsors of PB’s election coverage, Ladbrokes, reckon this will be be biggest day ever for betting on a British political event. To get in on the act a new betting exchange with a focus on politics, Political Smarkets, has been launched. They aim to compete with Betfair in this key area. As soon as it finishes the big question will be…
Should we be “recalibrating” its figures? Something very strange is happening with the ComRes polling numbers which look as though they might be being distorted by a huge increase in “other others”. This is the category that excludes the three main parties, SNP/PC/UKIP/GRN/BNP and in, for instance, the firm’s February 11th poll was down to just four respondents in a sample of over a thousand. According to the data from last night’s poll for ITV News/Independent “other others” were recorded…
..PB.s Marf gives her take Thanks Marf – that’s great and really sets the scene. I’m off to Manchester tomorrow to be part of the panel of “experts” on the ITV post-debate debate chaired by Jonathan Dimbleby. It’s quite exciting and I feel honoured to be taking part. It starts at 10.30pm. Because of the massive security restrictions I doubt if I’ll be able to post – but PB will be left in the capable hands of the site’s team…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 13 Apr 12 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 4% The latest ComRes tracker, in which a fresh sample of 500 is interviewed each day and the total added to the previous day’s responses, is out and has Labour down in the 20s with the Tories at 35%. The survey, for ITV News and the Independent, covers yesterday and Monday and so took place before…
YouGov Daily Poll Apr 14 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5.5% Is this down to the manifesto coverage? My reaction to last night’s polling news was that there might have been a boost in Labour’s position because quite of a lot of the fieldwork had taken place just after the party had received a coverage boost following its manifesto launch. Well it does seem from tonight’s…