Ipsos-MORI Is this the trend we should be looking at? PB regulars will be aware that one of the sets of monthly data that I take seriously is the above from MORI – the leader approval ratings. These have been asked in precisely the same form since the late 1970s and have proved to be an equal if not better guide to general election outcomes than the standard voting intention findings. Given that the latest MORI poll was carried out…
MORI Evening Standard Apr 20 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 32% 35% LIB DEMS 32% 21% LABOUR 28% 30% Another poll – another third place for Labour After the ComRes poll which had actually been completed on Monday night we now have MORI where the fieldwork ended yesterday. As can be seen it is in the same broad territory as other recent polls and adds further weight to the view that Lib Dem surge is being sustained. ComRes and its nine point…
Is now the time to do some serious spread betting? There’s a sub-set of data in the PB/Angus Reid general election polling series that looks at what is happening in the 62 seats which the Lib Dems won at the 2005 general election. Inevitably given that this represents only about one in ten of all GB seats the sub-sample is small. But the numbers coming from surveys since the debate show that Clegg’s party is doing enormously well in the…
At what stage should the animation stop? Philip Palfrey of the University of Sheffield has produced this animated graphic to illustrate how the political map of Britain could change depending on the level of swing to the Liberal Democrats. A key element here is that the map shows all constituencies as being the same geographical size. Philip has asked me to note that this work is based on data provided through EDINA UKBORDERS with the support of the ESRC and…
Is this a rogue or is the LD bounce running out of steam? ComRes ITV/Independent Apr 19 Apr 18 CONSERVATIVES 35% 32% LIB DEMS 26% 28% LABOUR 26% 28% So, here is the long-awaited sensational poll from ComRes, with the Conservatives now on a nine-point lead over both the other parties. As with all polls that break from the recent trend, is this an outlier, or the first indication that the Lib Dem bounce has slightly deflated and the Tories…
YouGov/The Sun Apr 20 Apr 19 LIB DEMS 34% 31% CONSERVATIVES 31% 33% LABOUR 26% 27% Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems in the sunlit uplands of the mid-thirties, three points ahead of the Tories and eight clear of Labour. How much higher would they need to go to become largest party – and can they secure anywhere near this kind of vote share on election day? Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk
Populus/The Times Apr 20 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 32% 36% LIB DEMS 31% 21% LABOUR 28% 33% Fieldwork was carried out yesterday evening and this morning, and confirms the continuing Lib Dem bounce, with Clegg’s party up 10 points, Labour down five, and the Conservatives down four at 32. Peter Riddell comments in The Times: “The Lib Dem rise has been particularly fuelled by younger voters since last Thursday’s party leaders’ debate, while there are indications that the debate may boost…