Just an afternoon on the “overall majority” markets
Could the numbers turn again? It’s been quite an afternoon on the betting markets as punters digested the poll news what was coming in and then piled into a Tory overall majority. So NOM – the favourite of only a few hours ago – is back to odds against and a Tory majority is odds on. The chart, from Bestbetting, shows how the exchanges reacted with the odds expressed as percentages. UPDATE BPIX – Mail on Sunday BPIX – Mail…
The polls as they are confirmed
YouGov – Sunday Times YouGov – Sunday Times May 1 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 27% 28% ComRes – Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday ComRes S. Mirror/IoS May 1 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LIB DEMS 25% 26% LABOUR 28% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LIB DEMS 27% 30% LABOUR 29% 28% Angus Reid – Sunday Express Angus Reid – Sunday Express May 1 Apr 26…
Tonight’s polling templates and news
These are the five that I’m expecting – numbers to be filled in as the news comes out. Where we get information from good sources that will be put underneath each box as an update. ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES –% 33% LIB DEMS –% 30% LABOUR –% 28% ICM UPDATE 1355 – Clue from usually reliable posters are suggesting that the Tories are on 36% with the LDs on 29%. No information…
Might UNS be the best guide after all?
What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…
Labour drop down to 24 percent with Harris
And the LDs move to within one point Harris – Mail Apr 30 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 32% 30% LABOUR 24% 25% A second poll out tonight, from Harris for the Daily Mail, has good news for the Yellows, moderately good news for the blues, and Labour edging down to just 24%. This is just one point above the 23% that the Angus Reid/Economist poll found. News of the poll has come from the reproduction of front…
It’s almost no change in the first post-debate poll
Only Labour moves up a point YouGov – the Sun Apr 30 Apr 29 CONSERVATIVES 34% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% Those who were expecting big polling changes following the final debate will be disappointed. In the latest YouGov daily poll the Tories remain at their pre-Bigotgate 34% with both Labour and the LDs on 28%. I think that the Team Blue will find it slightly deflating not to be making the progress that last night’s performance…
The Guardian abandons Labour
Guardian