Guardian story prompts moves on “Laws Return” market

Guardian story prompts moves on “Laws Return” market

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Political Smarkets But how realistic is such a possibility? There’s been some movement overnight in the betting on whether David Laws will return to government following a Guardian report that talks are taking place on Laws playing an informal role in the run-up to the coalition’s first budget in three weeks time. Over the weekend the price against a Laws return this year settled down at about 8%. Now, as I write at 0300, it’s shifted to 40% – 6/4…

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The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

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Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) reflect upon models and methods for projecting the vote at the 2010 British election. In this post we consider the performance of our projection model and the other models published in the run-up to the May 2010 UK Election, discuss the methodological issues involved, and consider some of the future directions for projection both in the…

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Were the “flippers” just following the Telegraph’s advice?

Were the “flippers” just following the Telegraph’s advice?

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Remember their 10-point guide to CGT avoidance? Three days before Gordon Brown became Prime Minister the Telegraph published this guide to property owners wanting to avoid capital gains tax. One choice bit was: “Become a butterfly and flit between homes Or in the jargon, switch “principal private residence” exemptions between properties. All gains on property are taxable with the exception of the home you live in which the taxman calls your principal private residence. However, if you own more than…

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Should the Telegraph have checked with the HMRC first?

Should the Telegraph have checked with the HMRC first?

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HMRC – Capital gains relief Are they trying too hard to find a story? There was a lot of heated argument on the overnight thread about the basis of Telegraph’s splash lead attack the new Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander. This is all about capital gains tax on property which, as most are aware, does not apply to your main residence. It also, as I myself discovered some time back, does not apply for the final three years of ownership –…

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Here we go again

Here we go again

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Telegraph Tonight’s “revelation” from the Telegraph The target is the new Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander who, according to the report, did not pay capital gains tax on the sale of a property. Has he operated illegally? Apparently not. So what’s the big the deal? Is the paper suggesting that citizens, not just MPs alone, should so arrange their affairs to maximise the tax they pay? That’s getting into a dangerous and contentious area. It will be interesting to see what…

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Could punters be getting it wrong again?

Could punters be getting it wrong again?

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Will a big line-up make it harder to predict? Above is a clip from the Guardian on the day that voting packs went out on the last occasion that Labour’s election machinery was used – the June 2007 deputy election. At this point, just seventeen days before the result was announced, the firm favourite at 6/5 was Hilary Benn. Behind him in the betting came Alan Johnson (2/1), John Cruddas (4/1), Harriet Harman 6/1, Hazel Blears 16/1 and Peter Hain…

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What did Iain Dale mean by this intriguing Tweet?

What did Iain Dale mean by this intriguing Tweet?

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“..I think I will save the events of the last 45 mins for my memoirs. I wish I could tell u what’s going on, but if I did I’d have to kill u..” Just over half an hour after Tweeting with news that David Laws was planning to resign Iain Dale published another Tweet, featured above, which I have been puzzling over ever since. This came out shortly after 7pm and before the news of the resignation got picked up…

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What’s the betting that he’ll be back?

What’s the betting that he’ll be back?

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I’m hoping that there’ll be a betting market up quite soon on whether David Laws will return to government as a minister. Certainly the warm tone of David Cameron’s letter seems to indicate that this might be possible. The PM concluded: “I hope that, in time, you will be able to serve again as I think it is absolutely clear that you have a huge amount to offer our country”. Peter Mandelson, it will be recalled, had several comebacks. Clearly…

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