Is there still a lone rider tendency?

Is there still a lone rider tendency?

Is the government still not thinking like a coalition? Last week, the Lib Dem Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, Vince Cable, proposed a Graduate Tax as an alternative means of funding higher education to tuition fees. This week, unattributed Tories briefed against it with the result that the proposal is now unlikely to prosper. Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of the tax, the process tells us a lot about how the government is working (or in…

Read More Read More

Could the Coalition fight as “The Coalition”

Could the Coalition fight as “The Coalition”

This Week after 10 minutes What do we think of Portillo’s prediction? In a lively discussion on BBC2’s “This Week” Michael Portillio made two very interesting predictions – first that EdM would be the next leader of the Labour party and second, that the two coalition parties would go into the next election campaigning under the banner of “The Coalition”. Unless the whole arrangement falls flat, which is always a possibility, we are talking about what could happen in 2015…

Read More Read More

The markets edge back to DaveM

The markets edge back to DaveM

Candidate Best bookie price Betfair Back – Lay David Miliband 8/13  1.6 – 1.67 Ed Miliband 15/8  2.9 – 3.1 Ed Balls 18  32 – 40 Andy Burnham 33  55 – 65 Diane Abbott 50  95 – 110 Are we seeing the Andree Neil effect? After a week where Labour’s leadership betting has been driven by the number of union endorsements going to Ed Miliband and the Left Foot Forward projection the move to the younger M has stalled. At…

Read More Read More

Henry G asks: How low can Clegg’s scores go?

Henry G asks: How low can Clegg’s scores go?

What do the Lib Dems do about evaporating support? Nick Clegg may have brought the Liberal Democrats into Government, but his party can only defy political gravity for so long. As one colleague said to me recently ‘let’s not forget that the Lib Dems won more seats led by a drunk Charlie Kennedy than it did with a sober Nick Clegg’. The drama of the coalition has in many ways masked the failure of the Liberal Democrats to meet expectations…

Read More Read More

Is Ashcroft’s AV analysis flawed?

Is Ashcroft’s AV analysis flawed?

Does the focus on marginals miss the nature of electoral reform? There has been much discussion of the Lord Ashcroft commissioned poll, undertaken in the marginals by Populus, which seeks to examine what would have happened if 125 key marginals had used Alternative Vote (AV) instead of FPTP (First Past The Post) to elect their MP. The article on ConservativeHome can be found here, while analysis by Anthony Wells can be found here. Headline results suggest that the Tories would…

Read More Read More

The EdM price tightens following LFF projection

The EdM price tightens following LFF projection

Candidate Membership MPs/MEPs Trade Unions Electoral College David Miliband 34.9 38.87 26.08 33.28 Ed Miliband 30.8 27.94 39.5 32.75 Diane Abbott 20.4 6.07 15.23 13.90 Andy Burnham 9 13.77 12.87 11.88 Ed Balls 4.9 13.36 6.32 8.19 But are the brothers really neck and neck? There’ve been sharpish moves to EdM overnight on Betfair following a projected result published on the Left Foot Forward, the blog edited by Will Straw. On Monday EdM was trading in the 3.75 – 3.8…

Read More Read More