Will the GE be in 2015?

Will the GE be in 2015?

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Or will Parliament heed its Clerk? An interesting piece in the Guardian reports the evidence given by Malcolm Jack, Clerk of the House of Commons, to the Political & Constitutional Reform Committee. He has warned that the plan to introduce five-year Fixed-Term Parliaments (part of the Coalition Agreement) could force the courts to make judgements on “matters of acute political controversy, such as whether an election should be held”. The Clerk also attacked the failure to draft the legislation in…

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Who could be the next Foreign Secretary?

Who could be the next Foreign Secretary?

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Who will follow Hague, and when? Paddy Power have recently put up a new market on who will be the next permanent Foreign Secretary after William Hague. Though the story surrounding his hiring of Christopher Myers has largely died down, Fraser Nelson (Spectator editor writing for the NotW) has hinted that the personal cost of making the statement he released might cause him to step away from front line politics in the near future anyway. Nelson’s article is worth a…

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Boost for Clegg in new ComRes poll

Boost for Clegg in new ComRes poll

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It’s 38/34/18 The first non-YouGov poll for three weeks has a boost for the LDs and is showing a share very different from the online pollster’s recent daily polls. According to ComRes, the yellows are now on 18 per cent, up three points on the last survey from the firm. The Tories, on 38 per cent, are down one point while Labour, on 34 per cent, is up one. There are signs that men are more opposed than women to…

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Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

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Are there lessons for next time? Labour’s relatively strong performance in London was one of the most surprising outcomes of the general election. Prior to this election, Yougov had had an excellent record of predicting election results in London, and were forecasting a swing of 5-6% in favour of the Conservatives. On the day, the swing was just 2.5%. Overall, the outcome was not as bad for the Conservatives as it might have been. The party picked up some of…

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Could Tory rebels block the AV bill?

Could Tory rebels block the AV bill?

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And what would that do to the coalition? According to stories in the Independent and the Spectator, there are a number of Tory MPs (Bernard Jenkin and Daniel Kawczynski are suggested as ringleaders) who will vote against the Coalition government in today’s vote on the bill that provides for a referendum on AV next May. Some are ideologically opposed to anything that threatens FPTP, some object to the impact of holding it on the same day as the Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish…

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“What to look for in the autumn”

“What to look for in the autumn”

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Millais “Autumn Leaves” (Wikimedia Commons) A round-up of the international scene It’s been a busier August than usual, with the Labour leadership contest and the Australian election, but things will step up a couple of gears this month as politicians return from holidays, parliaments reconvene, and politics returns in earnest for the autumn. Taking its cue from the iconic Ladybird books series (more at bottom), these are a few things “to look out for” as the autumn unfolds. Australia (voted…

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Is Ed Miliband’s ‘Change to Win’ argument right?

Is Ed Miliband’s ‘Change to Win’ argument right?

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And either way, will it win him votes? One of the interesting developments in the Labour leadership race is the extent to which Ed Miliband is marketing himself as the ‘change’ candidate. The word is all over his campaign website. The BBC is reporting a YouGov poll publicised by his campaign team in which 72% of people considering voting Labour would be less likely to do so if the new leader continues to tread the New Labour path (curiously, there…

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Will Farage be the comeback kid?

Will Farage be the comeback kid?

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  Or has he built up too many negatives since he quit? Former UKIP leader Lord Pearson’s decision to resign the leadership on the grounds that he was “not much good” at party politics was a refreshingly candid appraisal of his abilities. That’s opened up the prospect of his predecessor, Nigel Farage, returning to the post he held for three years. During that time, UKIP enjoyed its best ever result, in the European elections, when they polled 16.5% of the…

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