politicalbetting.com

  Or has he built up too many negatives since he quit? Former UKIP leader Lord Pearson’s decision to resign the leadership on the grounds that he was “not much good” at party politics was a refreshingly candid appraisal of his abilities. That’s opened up the prospect of his predecessor, Nigel Farage, returning to the post he held for three years. During that time, UKIP enjoyed its best ever result, in the European elections, when they polled 16.5% of the…

Read More Read More

What is this story really about? I’ve been re-reading the Guardian story about the phone-hacking at the News of the World, as reported in the New York Times extraordinary feature. Even allowing that we had a full-scale spread on the story by the Guardian earlier this year, this story has not been altogether drowned out by the Hague-Myers story or the launch of Tony Blair’s book. The BBC and ITV are both leading with the story this evening. I am…

Read More Read More

Rod Crosby puts the case for voting YES Theoretical Case Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem states that no (#1) voting system can be totally fair when choosing between more than two candidates. Selecting a single-winner voting system therefore depends on which aspects of fairness we consider more important than others. FPTP’s unfairness has been understood for centuries, and its most deprecated flaws are:- 1) failing the Majority Loser Criterion. FPTP can elect the candidate whom the overwhelming majority of voters wish to…

Read More Read More

This is what his memo looks like enlarged. See Daily Mail here.

“Dyed In Some Wool” puts the case for voting NO When considering the upcoming referendum, AV seems to me not only to be the wrong answer, but the referendum itself is the wrong question. Let’s look at the main reasons for considering a yes vote. I want a more proportional system AV is not proportional and will not lead to parliament reflecting the national vote, most seats contested at the 2010 election would remain in the same hands. AV will…

Read More Read More

Betfair Politics

Is he now value for Tory leader? Just as you can buy bargain stocks in the midst of a stock market panic, there is rarely a better time to bet on a politician than when they are seen as being in trouble. Of course, if the trouble is serious then they might be best avoided, but sometimes the damage to a politician is more shallow than it appears. Taking advantage of the maxim “markets don’t react: they overreact” I wonder…

Read More Read More