What’s this week told us about the next election?

What’s this week told us about the next election?

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Have both cleared the decks for a battle on the centre ground? After an extraordinary week it’s worth sitting back and reflecting on what we’ve learnt about what will dominate the next four and a half years – the general election planned for 2015? There’ve been two developments which have been very telling – the Tory move on child benefits and Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet appointments. For with both the two leaders have shown their readiness to ditch their natural…

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What do we think of EdM’s new team?

What do we think of EdM’s new team?

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Has he got the mixture right? Leader of the Opposition Rt. Hon. Ed Miliband MP Deputy Leader and Shadow Secretary of State for International Development Rt Hon Harriet Harman MP Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Rt Hon Alan Johnson MP Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs and Minister for Women and Equalities Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP Shadow Secretary of State for the Home Department Rt Hon Ed Balls MP Chief Whip Rt Hon Rosie Winterton MP…

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Could Alan Johnson pip the Balls duo?

Could Alan Johnson pip the Balls duo?

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Is he the only one that EdB would accept? Inevitably there are lots of rumours running about who EdM will chose as his shadow chancellor and there’s been a buzz about Alan Johnson. Just trying to think this through EdM will have a massive job dealing with EdB if the latter doesn’t get it. The former close Brown-aide and Schools Secretary is a powerful figure and my guess is that the only contenders whom he would accept are, possibly, his…

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Why no space in Labour for those with names beyond M?

Why no space in Labour for those with names beyond M?

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Are these four the victims of alphabetical discrimination? One of the extraordinary features of Labour’s shadow cabinet election is that all the nineteen winners had surnames starting with letters in the first half of the alphabet. So highly competent MPs such as Stephen Timms, Sean Woodward, Emily Thornberry and Stephen Twigg did not manger to garner enough votes to make it across the line. It’s a well-known electoral phenomenon, particularly when you have a long list of candidates, that those…

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Is it going to be Yvette?

Is it going to be Yvette?

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Standard Will she pip her hubbie for shadow chancellor? With the results of Labour shadow cabinet elections due out this evening Ed Miliband is said to be phoning key figures to tell them what role they have. The big focus is, of course, on the Balls household – is the shadow chancellor going to be Mister or Missus? The rumours suggest the latter and that’s where the lively Smarkets exchange market is now moving. I’ve been betting against Ed Balls….

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Can we nail the “EdM result was leaked” myth?

Can we nail the “EdM result was leaked” myth?

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Tom Harris Tweat Tom Harris is wrong to make this assertion As those who follow the political betting markets will be aware there was a massive turnaround in the betting on the Labour leadership race in the forty-eight hours before the result was announced at 4.45pm on Saturday September 25th. For several months David Miliband had been the hot odds on favourite until about 8pm on the Thursday evening before the results were announced. The betting then moved rapidly so…

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Does the coalition make a Tory outright victory harder?

Does the coalition make a Tory outright victory harder?

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Final week campaign poster – May 2010 How will the blue team campaign next time? We all remember the closing stages of the May general election. The Lib Dems had surged following the debates and the Tories launched a furious campaign warning of what would happen if there was a hung parliament. In broad terms it worked – certainly in impeding the move to the yellows. But the blues were still 18 seats short of an overall majority and Cameron…

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The cuts: Labour still getting the most blame

The cuts: Labour still getting the most blame

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Most to blame for spending cuts? All voters% CON voters LAB voters LD voters CON-LD coalition 20 2 49 9 Last Labour government 44 88 5 56 Both 22 6 28 23 Neither 8 2 13 10 Can the coalition continue winning on this question? In all the polling this week YouGov once again asked “And who do you think is most to blame for the current spending cuts?”. The response was almost exactly the same as it has been…

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