The chart shows the changes in the WH2024 betting and as can be seen the money has been going on Trump following the latest developments with his various criminal cases. It is certainly at this stage difficult to see anything other than the WH2020 nominees being the same for next year. My one big caveat is that all can change very rapidly when the primaries start. At the moment the polling is really all about name recognition and it is…
How the Scotland-only polls have been moving On the Smarkets exchange punters have a SLAB gain as an 87% chance. It is hard to disagree. SLAB is my shorthand for Scottish Labour. Mike Smithson
We need to remind ourselves that the general election is getting closer by the day and the amount of time that Sunak has to play with is getting smaller. The rate rises are going to hit a huge proportion of the population and many families will likely feel poorer as a result. It almost goes without saying that the incumbent government looks set to get a lot of the blame and that can only benefit LAB and the LDs. My…
Is Sunak paying more attention to them than the scientists? I found this latest CONHome survey quite shocking and helps to explain Sunak’s equivocal position on green issues and global warming. But I’d suggest that if he wants to be in Number 10 after the election he has to ignore the views of party members and be much more resolute. In this instance, party members are broadly irrelevant but that is a hard position for the PM to take. These…
Thanks to David Cowling and Keiran Pedley for this – the data showing minuscule changes in the voting intention numbers so far this year. LAB has a lead of about 20% and is hanging onto it. This has meant that there has been very little to analyse and as each month goes the chances of a LAB majority government look even stronger. The biggest political loser here, I would suggest, is Sunak who not only has struggled with his party…
But it is surely going to have a huge impact on the campaign. As to the political impact these are a couple of reactions. “Politically, this indictment will be a challenge for Republicans for the next 460 days leading up the election. Instead of a laser focus on Biden’s perceived shortcomings, GOP lawmakers will be asked over and over again about the former president’s behavior on Jan. 6 and the efforts to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election,…
The big political story this afternoon is that the SNP MP, Margeret Ferrier, has lost her seat following a successful recall petition. This means a by-election in what was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. Given the current position of both parties then it is little wonder that LAB is such a hot favourite. The outcome will be a good indicator of how Scottish LAB is likely to perform against the SNP in Scotland at the general election. Starmer’s…