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2010 General Election – vote change by tactical situation Winning/second party 2005 CON vote change LAB vote change LD vote change LAB/CON (213) +4.5 -7.0 +0.6 CON/LD (81) +4.1 -6.8 +0.5 LD/LAB (16) +4.0 -4.0 -0.9 LD/CON (45) +3.7 -4.7 -0.4 CON/LAB (128) +3.6 -9.9 +3.3 LAB/LD (107) +3.0 -5.2 +0.4 All seats (629) +3.8 -6.5 +0.8 Why did the election see so little new tactical voting? The above table is based on data from Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s…

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Is this the new leader’s first big mistake? News is just coming through that Ed Miliband has made the controversial Oldham East and Saddleworth MP, Phil Woolas, a member of his shadow ministerial team for the Home Office. Woolas, of course, is waiting for the verdict of the court hearing into the way he conducted the election campaign. Maybe they’ve had an indication that the court will find in the MP’s favour? Who knows but the evidence that came up…

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BBC News Can both sides sell it to their parties? Right from the very beginning of the coalition on May 11th 2010 there has been a big dark shadow on the horizon – what the two parties will do about students fees. Getting rid of them has been central to the Lib Dem policy profile for a long time and very strong commitments were made in the run-up to polling day. Such was the gap between the partners that this…

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Political Smarkets Can Cameron’s press chief continue to ride out the storm? After the outcomes in the Labour leadership race and Ed Miliband’s choices for the shadow cabinet the number of political betting options has suddenly got more limited. But there is one possibility – an issue that got over-shadowed during the week. This is the question of whether Cameron’s press chief, ex News of the World editor, Andy Coulson is going to keep his job. For what he did…

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Poll/publication Date CON% LAB% LD% ICM S. Telegraph 08/10/10 38 34 18 ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18 ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 ICM/S. Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21 ICM/S. Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21 ..and once again an LD figure that’s totally different from YouGov The first post conference season telephone poll is just out – from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph – and has…

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Do Miliband’s appointments prevent the settling of old scores? Back in 2006 and early 2007, I predicted that the Blairites and Brownites would stop their infighting once Blair retired, as the Blairites would no longer have a champion to fight for and the policy differences between the two camps were too small to be worth the candle. Not the best prediction there’s ever been. One of the main reasons that didn’t happen, despite Blair’s departure from the scene is that…

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Have both cleared the decks for a battle on the centre ground? After an extraordinary week it’s worth sitting back and reflecting on what we’ve learnt about what will dominate the next four and a half years – the general election planned for 2015? There’ve been two developments which have been very telling – the Tory move on child benefits and Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet appointments. For with both the two leaders have shown their readiness to ditch their natural…

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