The Tories regain the lead with ICM

The Tories regain the lead with ICM

Poll/publication Date CON% LAB% LD%
ICM S. Telegraph 08/10/10 38 34 18
ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18
ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18
ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19
ICM/S. Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16
ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21
ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21
ICM/S. Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21

..and once again an LD figure that’s totally different from YouGov

The first post conference season telephone poll is just out – from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph – and has the Tories back into the lead for the first time since July.

The fieldwork took place in the immediate aftermath of the David Cameron speech which was getting extensive coverage on Wednesday. The previous ICM poll was taken straight after the Labour conference but before the blues gathered in Birmingham.

Yet again ICM report totally different figures for the Lib Dems than we see from YouGov in their daily poll – and, no doubt, this will cheer the yellow team.

Historically ICM has the best record of all the pollsters with general election polling when it comes to the Lib Dem share.

Although you’d expect to see some boost from the conference the blues will be relieved that the child benefit row doesn’t seem to have had a negative impact.

The usual caveat: Past experience suggests that polls taken during and in the immediate aftermath of the conferences are very influenced by which party was “on” last – that certainly seems to have happened with ICM. We’ll get a truer picture by the end of the month.

  • UPDATE:The News International daily poll from members of the YouGov polling panel has Con 42, Lab 38, LD 12. So in very different territory from ICM although the Tory lead is the same.
  • Mike Smithson

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