On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

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First cabinet member to leave Party Price Vince Cable Lib Dem 2/1 William Hague Conservative 4/1 Liam Fox Conservative 5/1 Chris Huhne Lib Dem 8/1 Iain Duncan Smith Conservative 8/1 Theresa May Conservative 14/1 Michael Gove Conservative 16/1 Andrew Lansley Conservative 16/1 Michael Moore Lib Dem 20/1 Andrew Mitchell Conservative 20/1 Nick Clegg Lib Dem 20/1 Owen Paterson Conservative 25/1 Danny Alexander Lib Dem 25/1 Jeremy Hunt Conservative 25/1 Kenneth Clarke Conservative 25/1 Eric Pickles Conservative 25/1 Caroline Spelman Conservative…

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Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

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Without them could Labour have held on? As part of the ongoing row over Tory election tactics the observations of party campaign chief, George Osborne, have been made public. These are due to be published shortly in Dennis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s big academic study – British General Election of 2010. They write: “In an implied admission that the media attention on the debates – preparations, build-up and post-debate analysis – squeezed the amount of discussion of policies a senior…

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Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

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Should punters take notice? Apologies to PBers who are bored by the Labour leadership but this is a huge political betting event which is all going to be resolved on Saturday and many have large sums at risk. The outcome, of course, will have a major impact on British politics for years to come. Labour is electing someone it hopes will be the next Prime Minister. So far today we’ve had Dan Hodges at Labour Uncut saying that DaveM has…

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Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

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Why do so many EdM voters think DM would be better? The uber-uber Tony Blair and now David Miliband loyalist, John Rentoul blogged overnight about some YouGov polling figures which are driving him to despair. For Rentoul, of the Independent of Sunday, is disturbed that the polling suggests that his man won’t make it in the Labour election although a large chunk of those voting Ed Miliband think that DavidM is more likely to lead his party to victory at…

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Poll blow for the LDs on Clegg’s big speech day

Poll blow for the LDs on Clegg’s big speech day

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It’s now 42/38/11 Tonight’s News International-funded daily poll by YouGov has the Lib Dems down to 11 percent – a level the party has only touched once before since the general election. The shares are: CON 42% LAB 38%: LD 11%. The fieldwork will mostly have taken place before Clegg’s speech this afternoon but after a weekend when the party was getting a high level of attention in the media. If this is mirrored in the next ICM poll then…

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Boris leads in first London mayoral poll

Boris leads in first London mayoral poll

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Contender Overall % Inner London Outer London Boris Johnson 45 33 52 Ken Livingstone 27 32 24 Oona King 9 11 7 None 19 24 27 How big a task is this for Labour? With voting due to close on Wednesday in Labour’s election to choose a London mayoral candidate there’s what I think is the very first poll on the 2012 election by ComRes for the London Evening Standard. The numbers show the importance of incumbency and even if…

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Is the Boles plan the fox that can Clegg shoot?

Is the Boles plan the fox that can Clegg shoot?

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Was it designed to make Nick’s conference easier? What’s likely to produce the loudest applause during Nick Clegg’s big speech this afternoon will be when he makes clear that the coalition deal is for one parliament only and that there will be no pact with the Tories at the next election. For the prospect that something might just be on the agenda has been simmering since last Monday following the publication of a book in which the idea is floated…

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