With just a month to go before the first Primary in the 2024 presidential election, there has been a clear move in the GOP nomination betting to Nikki Haley the former governor of South Carolina. The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance which compares with Haley’s current rating of a 10% chance. But there is no one else in this apart from…
But can LAB really make 124 seat gains? Above is a trend chart showing the betting over nearly two years on the outcome of the next election. It is very hard with LAB poll leads of 20%+ to argue with the markets but this is not a bet I would place. Those of us old enough to remember GE1992 are very wary about polls and for things can move during a campaign. More recently we all recall how TMay’s certain…
As The Times observes Rishi Sunak is now as unpopular as Boris Johnson was when he resigned as prime minister. Polling from YouGov, carried out before last night’s crunch vote on the Rwanda bill, found 70 per cent of people said they had an unfavourable opinion of Sunak, compared with 21 per cent who had a favourable opinion. It means the prime minister has been given his lowest ever net favourability score of minus 49, a drop of ten points…
Mike Smithson
TSE
When I first moved into project management I asked my boss what he thought the top attribute of a successful project manager was. He said: ‘be lucky’, which is undoubtedly correct but hardly actionable. Was there ever a luckier Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak? I think not, here’s why: At six key points the dice have fallen heavily Sunak’s way. Family. Even before he was born, luck was on Sunak’s side. His grandparents and parents were able to move from…
Last week I texted fellow PBer JohnO with my fear/expectation that we would have a snap election in the new year caused by the Rwanda kerfuffle. John is the voice of sanity and experience when it comes to politics and his view was that he would eat one of my old trainers if there was an early election, in his words ‘Paddy Ashdown only had to consume a hat.’ I suspect this is a bit like the Nobody Moves Or…
This week Rishi Sunak is giving evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry and the polling is largely grim for him. The Times report that Twice as many people now think Rishi Sunak handled the pandemic badly than well, a poll has revealed before the prime minister’s crucial day of evidence to the Covid inquiry. More than half — 52 per cent — of those asked in a YouGov survey for the Times said Sunak’s flagship Eat Out to Help Out scheme…