Time to cross Portsmouth S off the by election list?

Time to cross Portsmouth S off the by election list?

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Some pre-Xmas good news for the yellows? Today’s news that no charges are to be brought against Portsmouth South MP, Mike Hancock, should provide some welcome good news for Nick Clegg and his party. For if the case of alleged “inappropriate behaviour” with a constituent had gone to trial then Hancock would probably have had to resign his seat leading to a very difficult by-election for his party to have to fight. He had been arrested and bailed in October….

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Should Clegg have gone for the Picasso – not turquoise strategy?

Should Clegg have gone for the Picasso – not turquoise strategy?

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Picasso – Night fishing at Antibes Was this the way of keeping the LDs distinctive? With the continuing Lib Dem falling poll shares, the Vince Cable affair and the ongoing reverberations from the student fees decision there’ve been some fascinating posts on PB about what went wrong and the strategy the party might have followed. One of the most insightful came overnight from long-standing poster, Yellow Submarine in which he looked to the art world for inspiration. The 2010 result…

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The yellows are at 9 points as well with Angus Reid

The yellows are at 9 points as well with Angus Reid

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 And Labour take a six point lead There’s a new poll tonight from Angus Reid which has the Lib Dems taking a huge hit dropping from 13% at the end of November to 9 points now. Labour move up to 41% giving them a six point margin…

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Is Cable going to hang on?

Is Cable going to hang on?

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SkyNews Could his “War on Murdoch” help the yellows? A lot going on this afternoon in the saga of the Vince Cable conversations with reporters posing as constituents. A new revelation this afternoon concerns his statement “I have declared war on Mr Murdoch and I think we are going to win.” I don’t know how that will go down in the Andy Coulson controlled government media operation but it will certainly resonate in many quarters not just confined to his…

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Is UKIP ever going to deliver a Westminster surprise?

Is UKIP ever going to deliver a Westminster surprise?

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The UKIP By-election record Date UKIP share % Deposit Norwich North 23/07/09 11.8 Saved deposit Glenrothes 06/11/08 0.3 Lost deposit Henley 26/06/08 2.4 Lost deposit Crewe and Nantwich 22/05/08 2.2 Lost deposit Sedgefield 19/07/07 1.9 Lost deposit Ealing Southall 19/07/07 0.8 Lost deposit Bromley and Chislehurst 29/06/06 8.1 Saved deposit Dunfermline and West Fife 09/02/06 0.6 Lost deposit Livingston 29/09/05 0.4 Lost deposit Hartlepool 30/09/04 10.2 Saved deposit Brent East 18/09/03 0.7 Lost deposit Ipswich 22/11/01 1.0 Lost deposit West…

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Labour move to their highest ever PAPA level

Labour move to their highest ever PAPA level

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PB All Pollsters’ Average Date CON % LAB % LD % ***PAPA Latest*** 21/12/2010 37.4 40.0 11.2 PAPA November 30/11/10 36.6 39.4 12.6 PAPA October 2010 31/10/10 37.6 37.2 15.2 PAPA September 2010 30/09/10 37.8 37.0 14.8 PAPA August 2010 31/08/10 39.3 36.0 15.0 PAPA July 2010 31/07/10 40.0 36.7 15.0 PAPA June 2010 30/06/10 40.2 37.2 17.2 And the gloom for the yellows continues The overnight polls from YouGov and ICM have reinforced the trend on PAPA – the…

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The LDs slip a notch in new ICM poll

The LDs slip a notch in new ICM poll

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Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) ICM Guardian 19/12/10 37 39 13 ICM Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 ICM/Guardian 24/10/10 39 36 16 ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18 ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18 ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21 And YES to AV has a…

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Harry H local election summary

Harry H local election summary

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Votes Cast % Votes Cast Seats Won Change Labour 5300 33.80% 3 1 Conservatives 4850 30.93% 4 -2 Liberal Democrats 2943 18.77% 1 -1 Others 1242 7.92% 2 2 UKIP 740 4.72% 0 0 Independents 439 2.80% 0 nc Green Party 168 1.07% 0 0 GAINS and LOSSES Conservative GAINS: Dunchurch and Knightlow on Rugby from Lib Dem Labour GAINS: Bewsey and Whitecross on Warrington from Lib Dem Liberal Democrat GAINS: Fareham West on Fareham from Con Respect GAINS: Spitalfields…

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