Labour move to their highest ever PAPA level

Labour move to their highest ever PAPA level

PB All Pollsters’ Average Date CON % LAB % LD %
***PAPA Latest*** 21/12/2010 37.4 40.0 11.2
PAPA November 30/11/10 36.6 39.4 12.6
PAPA October 2010 31/10/10 37.6 37.2 15.2
PAPA September 2010 30/09/10 37.8 37.0 14.8
PAPA August 2010 31/08/10 39.3 36.0 15.0
PAPA July 2010 31/07/10 40.0 36.7 15.0
PAPA June 2010 30/06/10 40.2 37.2 17.2

And the gloom for the yellows continues

The overnight polls from YouGov and ICM have reinforced the trend on PAPA – the Poliiticalbetting All Pollsters’ Average – and have EdM’s party at the 40% mark. For the Lib Dems the polling situation gets worse with the latest two surveys being the low points from each of the pollsters.

Based on this an early general election would see Labour with a majority or getting very close with the Lib Dems losing a large number of their seats – two factors, I suggest, why there won’t be one.

The coalition parties want as much space as possible between the hard decisions of 2010 and polling day in order to maximise their chances. Their big gamble is that by the time we get to voting the pain of today will be forgotten and they can go to the country saying that their tough decisions “turned things round”.

Who knows whether that will be the case but the massive weapon that governments have at their disposal is that they are the news-makers. For most of the time they can set the agenda and can make it very hard for the opposition to get a look in.

A secondary question is where the Lib Dems fit into this? Are they now totally “damaged goods”. We’ll get the first real indication at Old & Sad on January 13th.

UPDATE: I’ve updated the above table to include the latest ICM poll. Thanks to Phil at comment 14 for bring this to my attention.

Mike Smithson

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