The referendum: What are the polls telling us? Looking at the the detailed data from recent AV polls there are two clear trends – the older age groups (55+) are much less likely to support change and Labour voters from the general election are the most undecided. Thursday’s survey for Angus Reid had YES leading with a 37-22 point split. Yet amongst the 55+ group the lead was down to just one point with YES on 34 and NO on…
The Irish Election – Part 2 If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a boost in the polls as the election campaign builds up under their new leader Micheál Martin, they will have been disappointed by the latest polls. Last weekend’s RedC poll put the party’s first-preference support even lower than the previous week’s: Fianna Fáil 15% (-2) Fine Gael 38% (+3) Labour 20% (-2) Green 3% (+1) Sinn Féin 10% (-3) Other 14% (+3). A Millward-Brown poll published Tuesday was…
2007 Scottish Election: Constituency Date LAB % SNP % CON % LD % TOTAL ERROR Actual Results 03/05/07 32.2 32.9 16.6 16.2 YouGov 02/05/07 31 (-1.2) 37 (+4.1) 13 (-3.6) 14 (2.2) 11.1 ICM 30/04/07 32 (-0.2) 34 (+1.1) 13 (-3.6) 16 (-0.2) 4.9 Populus 30/04/07 29 (-3.2) 33 (+0.1) 13 (-3.6) 15 (-1.2) 8.1
Newspaper segments January 2011 segment circulation YouGov weighting (Mirror/Record=1) Circulation based weighting (Mirror/Record=1) YouGov weighting / Circulation based weighting Mail + Express 2,776,443 0.97 1.85 0.52 Daily Mirror/Daily Record 1,500,969 1 1 1 Sun+Star 3,736,133 1.38 2.49 0.55 Guardian+Independent+I 597,815 0.20 0.40 0.49 FT+Times+Telegraph 1,491,501 0.54 0.99 0.55 Should the pollster look urgently at its newspaper weightings A couple of weeks ago the former head pollster at ICM, Nick Sparrow, highlighted in his monthly PB column the reliance that pollsters…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 22 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot NO moves one point closer There a new Angus Reid AV referendum…
Could this determine the May 5 outcome? The general theory of referenda is that by the time people get to voting the issue can become less about what’s on the ballot paper and more about whether they want to make a statement about the government. That’s fine in conventional situations but what about current dilemma for Labour supporters – do they vote NO to punish “the traitor Clegg” or do they vote YES to try to damage the Tories? Given…
Why did their vote collapse in the final division? The big news from Westminster overnight was that the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill received the royal assent at 11.45 pm after the government won the final vote in the upper house overturning previous defeats. This means that the AV referendum will take place as planned on May 5th 2011 and there there will be NO turnout threshold – the last major point of contention. This followed an intensive couple…
How much notice should we take of the ex-leader? Reproduced above is the Tweet from Sky’s John Craig about his conversation with Paddy Ashdown. My main comment is that Ashdown’s backing for Nick Clegg was absolutely central to the coalition deal last May and his ongoing support has played a big part in keeping the Lib Dems on side. Paddy is a hugely influential figure within the party and if he stops supporting the coalition then it is only a…