Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

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The LibDem Collapse, Fact or Fiction The latest polls indicate that if another general election were to be held tomorrow Labour would sweep back to power with a majority (assuming uniform swing) of 46 over all other parties. The Conservatives would lose 45 seats, despite maintaining their 2010 share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile would lose 41 of their 57 MPs, leaving them representing a paltry 16 Constituencies. In 7 short months since the 2010 election, 6 in…

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Nick Sparrow to write on polling on PB

Nick Sparrow to write on polling on PB

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I am delighted to announce that Nick Sparrow, formerly the head pollster at ICM, has accepted an invitation to write some articles on polling for PB. To my mind Nick is the UK’s leading political pollster and in the mid-90s pioneered the system that we now know as “past vote weighting” to ensure political balanced samples. It was he who argued that the 1992 general election polling debacle was the result of samples based on demographic weightings alone no longer…

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Could the coalition be heading for a string of by-election losses?

Could the coalition be heading for a string of by-election losses?

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Is the answer a blue-yellow incumbents’ pact? One thing that strikes me following Old & Sad is that Labour is in a stronger position to gain seats in parliamentary by-elections than any opposition party has been for decades. For where SNP/PC considerations don’t apply the red team will always be the unequivocal choice for those wanting to oppose the government. The protest vote won’t be split. Normally they’ve had to have a spat with the yellows over who is best…

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The Lords filibuster goes on..and on..

The Lords filibuster goes on..and on..

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Can Labour’s peers stop the bill? The marathon and unprecedented overnight sitting of the House of Lords is still going on. As I write at 6.25am, Lord Kinnock, the former Labour leader and not someone known for his brevity, has just got to his feet so one can assume that there’s a lot of life in this yet. Whenever things have been put to the vote the government has had comfortably majorities. The debate on the government’s plans for an…

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Marf on Monday

Marf on Monday

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After her return last week Marf, PB’s cartoonist, is hoping to make contributions to the site on a regular basis – tonight on the NHS changes. Welcome back Marf – we really missed you. Mike Smithson

Will Alan Johnson take an “Estelle pill”?

Will Alan Johnson take an “Estelle pill”?

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Guest slot by Chilon on the Shadow Chancellor Alan Johnson has an awful lot to be proud of. Orphaned at 12, raised by his 15 year old sister in a south London council flat, the shelf stacker and postman who rose to lead his union, Alan Johnson is from a different mould to leading Labour politicians of today. As a minister, his natural confidence and panache when roused was clear – most notably in his willingness to take on Labour’s…

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Will this 2004 decision cost Labour the 2015 election?

Will this 2004 decision cost Labour the 2015 election?

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BBC News archive How long will the Goodwin knighthood remain a live issue? I very much doubt that when in 2004 Tony Blair signed off Gordon Brown’s recommendation of a knighthood for the then RBS boss, Sir Fred Goodwin, that anybody had any idea that this would be a live political issue seven years later. At the time Goodwin was one of the UK’s must successful businessmen to be lauded and praised and, as it turned out, to be included…

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Jonathan asks: Is an Obama come-back now on the cards?

Jonathan asks: Is an Obama come-back now on the cards?

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A Sunday slot on next years’s White House race Whilst in the UK we’ve been focussed on the OE&S by-election, we have overlooked the dramatic events in America. Since the midterms, Obama has made a quiet comeback. He looked presidential this week and has recorded his first net approval ratings in months. In the meantime the GOP, who should have been celebrating control of the house, is on the back foot. What is really going on and what are the…

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