Is Kellner right – Labour should be polling better?

Is Kellner right – Labour should be polling better?

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Should the lead be 10 percent plus? The president of YouGov and well-known Labour supporter, Peter Kellner, has put the cat amongst the pigeons with an article this afternoon saying that his party should be doing substantially better in the polls. He points to the current 32% – 54% gap in YouGov’s government approve/disapprove numbers and suggests that current conditions are ones “in which the main opposition party should be miles ahead, not a measly five points. ” This is…

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AV referendum will fail, say the “PB 104”

AV referendum will fail, say the “PB 104”

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PB 2011 predictions now out The AV referendum is predicted to result in a “No” vote – that’s the main finding from the 2011 Politicalbetting Prediction Competition. 104 of the site’s sharpest pundits took part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looking at everything from the state of the party leaders at Christmas and the opinion polls, to UK interest rates, the GOP race and the Irish election. Full details of the player-by-player predictions are

Will a referendum delay help YES or NO?

Will a referendum delay help YES or NO?

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What’s the consequence of not holding it on May 5th? In the next few days big decisions will have to be taken on the voting and constituencies bill which has been held up by the massive Labour filibuster in the Lords. Ministers have three choices: To try to force a guillotine on their lordships – an unprecedented step which might fail because cross-benchers are none too keen on the idea To accede to the Labour demand to de-couple the AV…

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Jonathan on Sunday on the week’s big political story

Jonathan on Sunday on the week’s big political story

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How did the main protagonists do The big political story of the week was the shock economic growth figures. The initial estimate for Q4 2010 was that the economy shrank by 0.5%. This was much worse than anyone expected. The political reaction was fascinating. Now that the dust has settled, how do we think the parties handled the surprise and what are the implications for the future? George Osborne blamed the weather. A political slight of hand designed to buy…

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Nick and Ed get YouGov leadership ratings’ boosts

Nick and Ed get YouGov leadership ratings’ boosts

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David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 45(+2) 95 10 71 Badly 48(-1) 4 88 25 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 37 (+4) 16 72 28 Badly 43 (-1) 65 16 57 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 34(+6) 68 8 79 Badly 57(-5) 26 88 20…

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Should the blues be worried about Dave’s ratings’ collapse?

Should the blues be worried about Dave’s ratings’ collapse?

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Ipsos-MORI.com Was January a blip – or the continuation of a trend? As PB regulars know I take a lot of notice leadership approval ratings particuarly those from MORI which has been asking the same questions for more than thirty years. Also, taking the lead from several leading academic political scientists who track this, my main focus is on the “satisfaction” figure and I’m less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it’s the proportion saying they…

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David Herdson asks: “How many Tories will vote Yes?”

David Herdson asks: “How many Tories will vote Yes?”

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Might AV work to their advantage? Politics often boils down to a mixture of high principle and low expediency or interest. The debate on voting reform has long been a classic example of the sort. It is hardly coincidental that all three main parties have produced principled arguments that just happen to support a voting system that is particularly favourable to them. One 1997 election promise that Labour were open about not keeping was their proposed referendum on voting reform….

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Do the blues need to do more to de-toxify the brand?

Do the blues need to do more to de-toxify the brand?

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Ipsos-MORI What do we think of the MORI leader/party “like/dislike” numbers? One of Ipsos-MORI’s “hardy annuals” is this series of questions contrasting the like/dislike of the three main party leaders with voters views of their parties. This is the first time since the general election and formation of the coalition government that these questions have been put and the summary of responses is featured above. In terms of likeability Cameron comes out top with Clegg in second place and Miliband…

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