Can anything stop Salmond’s party now? Just a week and a half to go before the general election for the Scottish Parliament a new YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday reports very similar trends to those we saw on Thursday from Ipsos-MORI. There appears to have been a sharp collapse in the Scottish Labour position over the past week with the SNP now touching vote shares in both sections which could leave the party only a few seats short of…
On the previous thread Beverley raised an issue that I have been pondering over – is the ballot form itself confusing and does it favour YES? She wrote:” I voted NO to AV yesterday, but I very nearly voted YES instead. I got the ballot paper and read the pre-amble that said (paraphrasing) “this is about whether to retain the FPTP systemâ€. Below was the actual referndum question and the YES and NO boxes. After reading the pre-amble I nearly…
Bedford Today Didn’t someone tell him about the nominations cock-up? Campaigning visits by party leaders and sitting PM’s to specific locations during the local elections are something of a rarity. The leader’s time is a precious resource and has to be used where it can do most good for the party. So how come that Cameron found himself this week putting fire in the bellies of Tory activists in the Bedford Borough ward of Oakley? For this is the only…
What happened to the unpopularity Cameron predicted? It’s been an expectation of many pundits and politicians that introducing government cuts will make the government unpopular. Two months ago, David Cameron himself repeated that sentiment. It’s certainly true that for the Lib Dems, government has brought unpopularity but the Tory share has remained just about unchanged. Even the Lib Dems may not be suffering from the cuts in general. The tuition fees issue and trust issue generally has been corrosive and…
PB Easter Survey: How active are you in politics? Tick all that apply. I’m a paid up member of a local party I attend local meetings I regularly deliver leaflets I canvas by phone I canvas on the door-step I am a candidate in the May 5th elections I help out on election days I generally go to my party’s national conferences I do none of the above
Is this a pointer to the locals? As a follow-up to last night’s thread about the English local elections I thought it’d be useful to extract the England only data from this week’s Ipsos-MORI poll. The firm is the only which which shows such a breakdown. The totals are above for “certains to vote” are – CON 43(+1): LAB 41(nc): LD 10(+1) with CON 39(+1): LAB 41(-1): LD 13(+2) amongst all those expressing a preference. The changes are on the…
Is this the most important of the 4 battle-grounds? There are four distinct contests on May 5th but only one which will provide real pointers as to the scale of the Labour recovery – the English local elections. A good result in Wales looks like a banker but the Ed Miliband-backed YES2AV campaign looks doomed and the latest polling suggest that the red team’s hopes of coming out top in Scotland might have been thwarted. It was in England on…
Salmond’s party becomes favourite after new MORI poll There’s been a lot of betting activity overnight with the publication of a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll that suggests that the SNP is heading for a big victory in the devolved parliament elections on May 5th. In both parts of the survey – the constituency and the list – Ipsos-MORI found that the SNP have soared ahead opening up ten and eleven point gaps on Labour. As can be seen from the…