Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

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Can the red team no longer rely on “the system”? For the last twenty years, the Conservatives have needed a greater share of the vote than Labour in order to win an overall majority. That was the case for three main reasons: a higher turnout in safe Conservative seats as against safe Labour ones, a much greater willingness for Lib Dems to tactically support Labour to keep the Tories out than the reverse, and Labour seats being on average smaller…

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Will the focus now move onto other papers?

Will the focus now move onto other papers?

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BBC News And could this still damage Cameron? In a dramatic development this afternoon News International has apologised to several figures whose mobile phone mail-boxes are said to have been hacked into and at the same time set up a £20m fund to deal with compensation claims. The firm is clearly hoping that this will draw a line under the affair which has continued for nearly three years since the Guardian first reported on the story. Amongst those with political…

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Marf on Portugal and austerity packages

Marf on Portugal and austerity packages

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A reminder for Monday April 18th There’s an exhibition currently going on of many of Marf’s PB cartoons at the Guildhall Gallery in the City of London. Marf herself will be there from mid-afternoon on Monday April 18th 2011 ahead of the PB party that evening at the Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station. Both gatherings are open to all PBers whether they are lurkers or commenters. See Marf’s works in a gallery setting AND see the faces behind…

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Can Scottish Labour win back power by ignoring the SNP?

Can Scottish Labour win back power by ignoring the SNP?

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Is it possible to make it a British not a Scottish election? At a briefing session this week organised by the Political Studies Association Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University made this cogent point about the elections to the devolved Scottish parliament at Holyrood:- “Evidence suggests that if this election becomes a referendum on the coalition in London, then Labour is likely to be the largest party but if it focuses on which party is most competent to govern Scotland…

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The Coalition loses ground in the council cuts blame game

The Coalition loses ground in the council cuts blame game

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Could this affect the locals on May 5th? Yesterday we looked at the latest finding in the “cuts blame game” and reported that YouGov was still showing a big deficit for Labour with 40% saying the last government was to blame for the spending cuts. There’s another tracker that YouGov has which is focussed on council spending cuts where a different picture is emerging. The question is: “Local councils in many parts of Britain are cutting some of their services….

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Could the “worm” really change an election outcome?

Could the “worm” really change an election outcome?

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Are researchers stretching conclusions too far? There’s an academic report out that suggests that devices such as the “Worm”, seen in some of the broadcasts of last April’s leaders’ TV debates, could influence the views of voters and possibly change an electoral outcome. Professor Jeff Bowers of Bristol University and Professor Colin Davis, from Royal Holloway, carried out their study by manipulating a worm and superimposing it on a live broadcast of the final election debate in Bristol. Two groups…

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Does the coalition need a Malcolm Tucker?

Does the coalition need a Malcolm Tucker?

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Is the problem about presentation and coordination?. Just looking back at an old episode of “In the thick of it” and it struck me that a Malcolm Tucker figure might be what Number 10 needs at the moment. What’s coming over as a mess would is down to a lack of focus and poor coordination. A Tucker would certainly help. Number 10 seems to be missing Andy Coulson and the new guy has got a lot to learn. Mike Smithson

Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

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The above charts show two sets of data with the referendum voting intentions of decided voters from the latest YouGov poll. The first shows how the referendum is being viewed by different age groups and illustrates the heavy reliance of YES voters in the younger age groups who are, of course, less likely to vote. It should be noted that YouGov did ask a voting certainty question and the splits reflect that. Our second chart shows the regional splits with…

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