Telegraph Is Brogan right about Clegg winning the “big battle”? In an interesting piece for the Telegraph Ben Brogan is arguing that on the key policy issues it is the LDs who are largely setting the agenda. “.. No wonder Tories hope that from tomorrow, the Lib Dems will cease to call the tune. The dog will be free to wag its tail again – indeed, if anything, Mr Cameron will have to restrain those urging him to call an…
A PB guest slot by Gavin Baylis Some early polls showed the Yes campaign leading in the alternative vote (AV) referendum; but the final polls suggest an overwhelming defeat. So where did it all go wrong? Firstly, undecided voters tend to back the status quo in the final stages of the campaign. In the US, pollsters find there are many ‘don’t knows’ as well as supporters and opponents of an incumbent. Pollsters argue that in early polls, what matters is…
The latest PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average is just out and has Labour dropping below the 40% mark for the first time this year. The calculation is based by taking an average of the most recent polls from the firms that do regular political polling. If a firm does not publish a survey for more than a month then their numbers drop out. Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 03/05/11 36 37 15…
UPDATED What’ll be the impact of such an overwhelming defeat for YES? The final AV referendum polls are coming out and the latest, from ICM, has NO with an overwhelming 68-32 lead. If the split is anywhere near this tomorrow it will be a devastating blow to Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. There’s no consolation for them in the figures which represent a remarkable victory for David Cameron who has campaigned so effectively against the changes. Still to come are…
Lots of surveys have or are about to be published and I’ll try to get them out in a graphic form as soon as possible. The changes are on the last election in 2007. The list vote from YouGov is CON 13%: LAB 32%(+3): LD 7%(-4): SNP 35%(+4): Green 6%(+2) The list vote from YouGov is CON 19%:LAB 43%: LDEM 8%: Plaid 18%: UKIP 7% It’s projected that this will give an overall Labour majority. Mike Smithson
Surprisingly given the enormity of the event we got through the who half hour of PMQs without Osama’s killing coming up. Overall was a down-beat session with the house half empty ahead of tomorrow’s big elections. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron did pretty well during their exchanges and they came out about even. The big talking points has been on Nick Clegg. This is how the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan saw it:- “… But what jumped out watching it on…
Could YES really be ahead? The above message from Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, was posted less than an hour ago and has even affected the betting markets. His suggestion that there is a poll about with a YES lead of one point is extraordinary giving yesterday’s numbers from ComRes showing a 66-34 split to NO. My understanding is that there are three polls to come later today – Angus Reid, ICM and YouGov. Could it be that Ben has…
Is he worth a 14/1 bet? I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive a disastrous series of results on Thursday and whether Huhne, Farron or AN Other would be the likely successor. I believe that Clegg has an extraordinary level of resilience and if he wants to carry on then he will do so – any observations I make here on the leadership have to be seen in that context. A key…