Will today’s elections makes us any the wiser about anything?

Will today’s elections makes us any the wiser about anything?

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Is turnout the only real issue? It’s election day with voters throughout Wales deciding on whether the Welsh Assembly should have greater law-making powers and in Barnsley Central where they’ll be deciding on a replacement for the former Labour MP who was sentenced to a year in jail over his expenses claims. The outcomes of both are forgone conclusions – there will be a big YES vote in Wales and Labour will romp home to a massive victory in Barnsley….

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Should Dave cut his pre-prepared insults?

Should Dave cut his pre-prepared insults?

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Can he move from a party to a national leader? According to Times’s Danny Finkelstein his old close colleague, the new Downing Street Director of Strategy, Andrew Cooper, is planning to tell Cameron that he should aim to be “be a national leader, rather than a party politician especially in the Commons.” But how realistic is this? Could Cameron really pull his punches in the way Cooper is said to want? As James Forsyth notes on the CoffeeHouse blog: “Nearly…

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Introducing Labour’s big idea for 2011

Introducing Labour’s big idea for 2011

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(Mrs Thatcher stepped down as PM on November 28th 1990) Thanks to Paul Waugh at PoliticsHome for spotting this – the latest campaign material being used by Labour ahead of tomorrow’s by-election. A big challenge in what is a super-safe seat will be getting the vote out and it’s revealing that the party feels that the Thatcher message is the strongest card. Even allowing for the fact that in the centre of what was the Yorkshire coalfield hostility towards the…

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Is this what the Tories fear about AV?

Is this what the Tories fear about AV?

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North Tyneside mayoral election 2005 Name 1st Choice Votes 1st choice  % 2nd Choice Votes 2nd choice % Final Labour John Lawrence Langford Harrison 34053 40.2 6407 61.6 40460 Conservative Linda Arkley 35467 41.8 3991 38.4 39458 Liberal Democrats Dr Joan Harvey 12761 15.1 N/A N/A N/A National Front Robert Nigel Batten 2470 2.9 N/A N/A N/A When an apparent winner became a loser The nearest elections Britain has got to AV have been in the the thirteen English councils where,…

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Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

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Canadian pollsters advise voters to be wary of polls! Research-live, the online newspaper for the UK market research industry reports that the Marketing Research & Intelligence Association (MRIA) in Canada has been driven to take out a full-page advertisement in the The Hill Times (a political weekly) aimed at reversing criticism of opinions polls. It seems the ad is needed because the pollsters themselves have been blabbing about the state of their own industry. Some it seems have been quoted…

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Why’s the ECJ being so breathtakingly stupid?

Why’s the ECJ being so breathtakingly stupid?

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Bloomberg Should Britain say it will defy the court? The story that’s made me most angry today has been the extraordinary decision by the European Court of Justice to stop insurance companies from allowing women to pay smaller car insurance premiums even though they are less likely to have accidents. This is being stopped on ground of “gender equality”. Andy Cooke on the previous thread had this right:- What a stupid ruling by the ECJ! The different premiums aren’t based…

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Has Labour picked up the Cleggasm non-voters?

Has Labour picked up the Cleggasm non-voters?

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ComRes splits Total % 18-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54% 55-64 % 65 plus % CON 35 17 26 33 31 39 50 LAB 39 59 43 39 39 39 30 LD 12 15 17 14 11 9 10 Is this why 1 in 7 LAB supporters failed to turn-out? One of my pet theories on opinion poll movements is that a lot of the change from survey to survey is driven by the least valuable electors of all…

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Labour lead down 5 in new ComRes phone poll

Labour lead down 5 in new ComRes phone poll

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/02/11 35 39 12 14 ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10 13 ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 12 But why no AV question? There’s a new ComRes phone poll out for tomorrow’s Indy which shows a four points drop for the reds with a two point increase for the yellows and a one…

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