Marf on the build-up to Rupert at Westminster

Marf on the build-up to Rupert at Westminster

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The queueing starts for public seats Members of the public anxious to see this afternoon’s Commons Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee have already begun lining up to be certain of the limited number of spaces that will be available. This is an extraordinary parliamentary occasion and a global media event. The start time is 2.30pm Rupert Murdoch, his son James and the ex-CEO of News International Rebekah Brooks, will be quizzed against the backdrop of the death of phone…

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Hacking barely registers in the latest Ipsos-MORI issues index

Hacking barely registers in the latest Ipsos-MORI issues index

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Does this suggest the most people don’t care? The survey is out and it’s hard to discern whether the hacking scandal has had any impact. The polling involves asking unprompted what respondees think are the key issues and, to me, compares favourably with other issues polling where prompting might influence the response. MORI has been doing it in this week for nearly a third of a century. Because of the nature of the interview process fieldwork is carried out face-to-face,…

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Why the big differences in tonight’s polls?

Why the big differences in tonight’s polls?

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YouGov/News International – CON 37%, LAB 42%, LD 9% ICM/Guardian – CON 37%, LAB 36%, LD 16% Populus/Times – CON 34%, LAB 39%, LD 11% It’s not often outside election periods that we get three polls in one evening all from established pollsters. That’s happened tonight and we see a big variation particularly between ICM and YouGov. I’ll be doing a more detailed post ionce we have the detailed data but a lot of the variation is down to methodology….

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Lib Dems up 4 with Lab down 3 in new ICM poll

Lib Dems up 4 with Lab down 3 in new ICM poll

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And the Tories move back into the lead The first of two telephone polls tonight is out – the Guardian monthly survey from ICM and the voting intention numbers suggest that thew biggest beneficiaries from the hacking scandal have been Nick Clegg’s Liib Dems. The shares, as seen in the chart are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 16. Clegg sees his party up 4 from the low of June and the best shares since February. Labour drop three and the…

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Marf on Monday

Marf on Monday

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Meanwhile the Cameron survival betting gets busier Ladbrokes have further tightened the price on Cameron being the next cabinet member to 12/1. Just ten days ago you could have got 100/1 with the firm. Stan James, meanwhile, offer 7/1 against Cameron not lasting the year. In other betting REBEKAH BROOKS is 1/5 with Ladbrokes to say ‘sorry’ whilst in front of the DCMS Select Committee. Parliament is now just 10/1 to be recalled before the recess ends. And as the…

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HenryG asks: Who’d take over if Dave is forced to quit?

HenryG asks: Who’d take over if Dave is forced to quit?

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Should you follow Mike’s 33/1 David Davis bet There’s increased speculation from Iain Dale and The Telegraph that David Cameron may end up quitting over the fallout from his relations to Coulson, Brooks and Murdoch. It’s worth considering who might takeover as leader of the Conservatives. The specific nature of this crisis hasn’t been reflected in the betting markets yet. I believe there is one candidate representing outstanding value. Let’s look at the frontrunners. Boris Johnson at 4/1. Isn’t even…

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Could my 150-1 Cameron bet end up being a winner?

Could my 150-1 Cameron bet end up being a winner?

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How close is this all getting to Number 10? Just nine days ago I placed a number of bets on what seemed then the very remote possibility that events could force Cameron out of Number 10. I got money on at 150/1 with Stan James and 100/1 that Dave would be next out saying “Could the position of the PM himself become the story in the next day or so and shouldn’t we be exploring the betting opportunities?” With so…

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