And there’s little change in the leader ratings The Ipsos-MORI political monitor for August is just out from Reuters and shows little change on July with the exception of Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems. The party sees its share move up 4 to 15% – a change that is in line with the ICM figures earlier in the week that had the yellows on 17%. The MORI 15% is the highest share from the pollster since last September. These figures from…
Last night’s little experiment with the PB Night Hawks cafe seemed to work well and the intention is that this should continue except when there’s a big story breaking. This is an open thread without a central them. Can I particularly welcome those who’ve never posted on here before. Please join the discussion if you feel inclined. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonPB
What if leader ratings are more predictive than VI? I’ve recounted here before how last March I gambled half my entire month’s pension on my strong belief that leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. Above is the polling that convinced me. Labour were comfortably ahead of the SNP in the voting intention (VI) polling and with the way seats are distributed look set for a substantial lead on seats in the Holyrood elections…
Telegraph Does it raise questions about the party “due dilligence”? The story over the severance package to Andy Coulson and the fact that neither Dave nor the Conserative party appears to have questioned the ex-NOTW editor about it continues to get a fair bit of coverage this morning. As Christopher Hope in the Telegraph reports what happened raises question about “due diligence†carried out by the party – a situation that hasn’t been helped by comments by two former News…
Tonight marks the start of the PB Night Hawks Cafe – a sort of regular open thread to take us through the night until day-break comes. This will go up several nights a week at about this time. Marf’s all-colour illustration is several times bigger than above and looks splendid. I’m hoping that she might be able to make prints available. Have a good night. @MikeSmithsonPB
Is Huntsman crazy to suggest otherwise? There’s a new poll out, from PPP, in Iowa – the first state to hold a primary – in which those sampled were asked whether they believed in evolution or not – a question that has become something of an issue. To the British eye the responses are startling. This is from the Iowa Independent:- “Perry’s drawn some attention in the last week for his statements about global warming and evolution and although he’s…
And Clegg’s party edges up to 17% For the second month running Britian’s most accurate pollster when tested against real national elections, ICM, is recording a one point lead for the Tories. It also has the Lib Dems on 17%. The survey for the Guardian, carried out from Friday until Sunday, has the Tories standing still on 37%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems moving up a point to 17%. The detail of the poll shows a sharp reduction…
Indy The biggest story after Libya this morning on the BBC news website is the allegation that News International was secretly funding Andy Coulson for several months after the ex-NOTW editor became David Cameron’s press chief in 2007. It’s said that the newspaper group was covertly making payments to it ex-employee and Tom Watson MP has called on the Electoral Commission to hold an inquiry. On the face of it this does sound serious but there might be a simpler…