Will Michelle Bachmann top the Ames Straw Poll?

Will Michelle Bachmann top the Ames Straw Poll?

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Is this a “Must Win” for the GOP’s third favourite? A week on Saturday at a university campus at Ames in Iowa what’s generally regarded as the first serious test of opinion about who should be the Republican party nominee takes place. The Ames Straw poll can be a hugely influential and in 1999 attracted more that 23,000 participants. There’s a whole series of things from barbecues to concerts going on during day finishing off with a vote amongst participants…

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Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

Are the Welsh having problems cutting a quarter of their seats?

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Welsh boundary review proposals delayed until next year The part of the UK that is most affected by the seat equalisation and reduction plan is Wales where the boundary commissioners are charged with reducing the number of constituencies from the current 40 to 30. This is a cutback of a quarter. The national reduction is from 650 seats to 600. According to the initial time-table plans for the new Welsh electoral map was due out in the first week in…

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Which party supporters are most right about the next election?

Which party supporters are most right about the next election?

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For yesterday’s News International/YouGov daily poll those sampled were asked what they thought would happen at the next general election. Charts showing the responses of Labour/Tory/LDs are featured above. Interestingly exactly the same proportion of Tory and Labour voters, 77%, think that their party will win most seats. The yellows, meanwhile, are more divided but give it to the blues by 50 – 32 Which group has got this most right? @MikeSmithsonPB

Hacking moves into a new phase

Hacking moves into a new phase

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Reuters Will Heather Mills put the spotlight on the Mirror? The big development in the hacking scandal this evening has been an interview that Heather Mills gave to the BBC in which she alleges that the Daily Mirror hacked her phone. The full interview is due to be screened by Newsnight. If its becomes established that this wasn’t just News International papers, as seems likely, then it will take a bit of pressure off the Murdoch team. @MikeSmithsonPB

Are last time’s losers always doomed to fail?

Are last time’s losers always doomed to fail?

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Politico Will GOP voters view Romney any differently in 2012? The influential US site, Politicos, has an article up under the provocative title “Why Romney can’t win” in which the authors look at the fate of previous losers in White House races when they’ve sought to run four years later. Paul Goldman & Mark Rozel recently set out what they described as their first law of presidential motion which applies to Sarah Palin: “Losing vice presidential nominees never win the…

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Is EdM about to bite the hands that fed him?

Is EdM about to bite the hands that fed him?

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Guardian Would DaveM have dared to take on the unions like this? The main lead in the Guardian this morning trails what’s likely to be a massive battle within Labour as Ed seeks to reduce the power of the big unions – those who used their power and influence to get him into the job in the first place. The leader is pressing forward with a range of reforms that would blunt the power of the big unions at Labour…

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Is David Davis planning a second resignation?

Is David Davis planning a second resignation?

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Could this create the vacancy so Boris could return? I’m picking up a vibes from Tories in Yorkshire,  where I used to work, that David Davis is thinking about leaving the commons early next year so he can be his party’s candidate in next year’s election for the Police commissioner of Humberside where, of course, he is currently MP for Haltemprice and Howden. These elections, which have hardly attracted any attention, are set to take place almost all over England…

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Do some blues judge Dave too harshly?

Do some blues judge Dave too harshly?

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Year Post-war elections with a change of government w 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had…

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