Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

Comments 0 Comment

Will the blues make their “first 2015 gains” next week Although it is not expressed in these terms the first part of the process leading up to the 2015 general election starts next week with the publication of the proposed new electoral map for England. This will set out in detail the precise boundaries that it is proposed that the 2015 election will be fought on. The plans for Scotland are due next month while the Wales will have to…

Read More Read More

Will breaking away detoxify the Scottish Tories?

Will breaking away detoxify the Scottish Tories?

Comments 0 Comment

Would autonomy stop them being seen as the English party? The 2010 general election demonstrated more dramatically than ever before the extent to which Scotland has become a different country politically. While the Conservatives made gain after gain in Wales and England, north of the border not only was there precisely no change in seats but the Conservatives actually went backwards in vote share. The proposal by the contender for the leadership of the Scottish Conservatives, Murdo Fraser MSP, to…

Read More Read More

Should you be taking the Hills’ 2-1 hung parliament bet?

Should you be taking the Hills’ 2-1 hung parliament bet?

Comments 0 Comment

Surely there’s a greater chance than this of it happening? Following the PB survey earlier in the week on the likely outcome of the general election I’ve been combing through the bookie sites trying to find the best bet on a hung parliament And the most attractive price is the 2/1 from William Hills against “no overall majority” which means the same thing. Other bookies and Betfair have much tighter prices. With a likely strong showing for the SNP in…

Read More Read More

On an amazing morning my choice for the biggest story…

On an amazing morning my choice for the biggest story…

Comments 0 Comment

What’ll be the impact of Labour’s Libyan links? We are spoilt for choice this Sunday morning with an amazing array of dramatic political stories including the Alastair Darling revelations in the Sunday Times and the Sunday Telegraph splashing plans to disband the Conservative party in Scotland. But the biggest must surely be the Mail on Sunday’s revelations of what is contained in a stash of documents and letters found in the British Ambassador’s residence in Tripoli. Read it here. The…

Read More Read More

The PB Nighthawks Cafe – the open thread…

The PB Nighthawks Cafe – the open thread…

Comments 0 Comment

I guess the big story overnight will be the Alastain Darling memoirs – parts of which have been leaked. Also, like every night, this is an open thread for PBers to talk about what they want. There are now prints available of Marf’s spoof of the Edward Hopper classic Nighthawks Café. This is a limited edition, signed by Marf in full colour for £60. If you are interested contact her here. @MikeSmithsonPB

Without Scotland can Labour ever win again?

Without Scotland can Labour ever win again?

Comments 0 Comment

BBC news As I reported last night I had an accident yesterday and am just recovering quietly at home – so there’ll be limited posting from me for the next day or so. The big polling news in the past 24 hours has been the Ipsos-MORI survey of Scotland which shows a big swing to the SNP, These are the figures:- Westminster voting intention (May 2010 election) SNP 42% (+22%) Lab 33% (-9%) Con 15% (-2%) LD 6% (-13%) Other…

Read More Read More

Is Cameron heading for a defence cuts revolt?

Is Cameron heading for a defence cuts revolt?

Comments 0 Comment

Does the Libyan operation change the terms of debate? Making cuts is always difficult for a government: voters lose out. When cuts are targeted, some groups suffer substantially in relative terms; when they are more or less across the board, everyone ends up with less, or at least less than they thought they’d have. The only real antidote to that difficulty is winning the argument that the cuts are both fair and necessary. Getting that right is hard at the…

Read More Read More

Into the weekend in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

Into the weekend in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

Comments 0 Comment

Alas I won’t be joining you. I’ve spent most of the day in hospital after an accident in the garden which left me with a nasty head wound. Just to say that the ambulance service was great and so were the A & E staff. At one stage they were going to keep me in but thankfully that wasn’t required. I hate hospitals. What is great when you are sitting around for extended periods is being able to follow the…

Read More Read More