Is this Labour’s big nightmare?

Is this Labour’s big nightmare?

Comments 0 Comment

What if leader ratings are more predictive than VI? I’ve recounted here before how last March I gambled half my entire month’s pension on my strong belief that leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. Above is the polling that convinced me. Labour were comfortably ahead of the SNP in the voting intention (VI) polling and with the way seats are distributed look set for a substantial lead on seats in the Holyrood elections…

Read More Read More

The Coulson severance story: Day 3

The Coulson severance story: Day 3

Comments 0 Comment

Telegraph Does it raise questions about the party “due dilligence”? The story over the severance package to Andy Coulson and the fact that neither Dave nor the Conserative party appears to have questioned the ex-NOTW editor about it continues to get a fair bit of coverage this morning. As Christopher Hope in the Telegraph reports what happened raises question about “due diligence” carried out by the party – a situation that hasn’t been helped by comments by two former News…

Read More Read More

Welcome to the PB night hawks cafe…

Welcome to the PB night hawks cafe…

Comments 0 Comment

Tonight marks the start of the PB Night Hawks Cafe – a sort of regular open thread to take us through the night until day-break comes. This will go up several nights a week at about this time. Marf’s all-colour illustration is several times bigger than above and looks splendid. I’m hoping that she might be able to make prints available. Have a good night. @MikeSmithsonPB

Did God really create the world in six days?

Did God really create the world in six days?

Comments 0 Comment

Is Huntsman crazy to suggest otherwise? There’s a new poll out, from PPP, in Iowa – the first state to hold a primary – in which those sampled were asked whether they believed in evolution or not – a question that has become something of an issue. To the British eye the responses are startling. This is from the Iowa Independent:- “Perry’s drawn some attention in the last week for his statements about global warming and evolution and although he’s…

Read More Read More

ICM still has the Tories ahead of Labour

ICM still has the Tories ahead of Labour

Comments 0 Comment

And Clegg’s party edges up to 17% For the second month running Britian’s most accurate pollster when tested against real national elections, ICM, is recording a one point lead for the Tories. It also has the Lib Dems on 17%. The survey for the Guardian, carried out from Friday until Sunday, has the Tories standing still on 37%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems moving up a point to 17%. The detail of the poll shows a sharp reduction…

Read More Read More

How serious is this latest Coulson story?

How serious is this latest Coulson story?

Comments 0 Comment

Indy The biggest story after Libya this morning on the BBC news website is the allegation that News International was secretly funding Andy Coulson for several months after the ex-NOTW editor became David Cameron’s press chief in 2007. It’s said that the newspaper group was covertly making payments to it ex-employee and Tom Watson MP has called on the Electoral Commission to hold an inquiry. On the face of it this does sound serious but there might be a simpler…

Read More Read More

Could Bombardier cost the Tories in the East Midlands?

Could Bombardier cost the Tories in the East Midlands?

Comments 0 Comment

New poll from Derby shows 13 point CON>LAB swing At the general election in May 2010 the East Midlands was one of the most crucial CON-LAB battle-grounds. Of the 46 seats at stake more than a quarter were gained by the Tories – It went from a pre-election notional split of CON 19: LAB 26: LD 1 to CON 31 and LAB 15. However the boundary changes work out it’s clear that this will be a keenly contested region once…

Read More Read More