PB voted top non-aligned blog of the year The results of the annual blog election at Total Politics are now coming in and PB has been voted the number one “Non-aligned blog”. Thanks to all those who took part in the election. @MikeSmithsonPB
What’s your analysis from the areas you know? We’ve now got the leaked copy of the boundary proposals for England and lots of different stories are emerging. At the moment it’s hard to give a top down analysis – we can only really comment on the areas that we ourselves know. Where I live in the big loser would appear to be the controversial mid-Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, who sees her seat split into four. That’s going to make…
Does it create a problem of legitimacy? According to PoliticsHome a report by two academics at Bristol University into last year’s Labour leadership election says the contest could not be described as “free and fair democratic”. The trade unions, it says, created a ‘block vote’ to back Ed Miliband. The authors, Richard Jobson and Mark Wickham-Jones, say that members of Ed’s own campaign admitted that the result created a problem of legitimacy – something that was flagged here at the…
Are the local battles about to commence? At midday at Westminster MPs for seats in England will for the first time see the proposals for the the revised boundaries that have been drawn up for the reduced sized house of commons. The total of MPs is being cut-back from 650 to 600 so inevitably there will be losers. Also certain is that the levels of marginality will change. So MPs with relatively comfortable majorities might find that the plan for…
Why the reluctance to reveal the numbers? Three weeks ago today the country’s most accurate pollster when judged against real elections, ICM, was completing its August political poll for the Guardian – something that it has been doing each month for almost a quarter of a century. The numbers showing the very small change on a month earlier are in the chart, CON 37: LAB 36: LD 17, are broadly consistent with what we are used to from the phone…
SkyNews Was it the day that changed the world? Some polling from YouGov earlier in the week found that 91% said they can remember what they were doing when news of the 9/11 attacks broke. This compares with 84% remembering where they were when Princess Diana died, 68% when the 7/7 attacks on the London tube took place, and just 25% when Margaret Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister. That puts it into context. In many ways it was the day…
Betfair Politics How soon before the Republicans are favourites? The chart says it all – the steady decline in the Democratic party’s position in the betting on the 2012 White House race. The numbers are based on the implied probability expressed as a percentage from the latest Betfair prices. The chart itself automatically updates as prices change. I like this market because it shows more how the betting sentiment is moving without naming the runners. This week’s big developments –…
Hi all, Over the next three or four days I will be susbstantially upgrading the Political Betting technical infrastructure. For those who care, the big changes are: A new faster, shinier main server An upgrade to the latest version of WordPress A huge upgrade to the Disqus commenting system (you’ll be able to ‘like’ particularly insightful comments, or those from tim or seanT) While I will try and minimise downtime, it’s quite likely that there will be substantial periods when…