Was Ed’s election “free and fair”?

Was Ed’s election “free and fair”?

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Does it create a problem of legitimacy? According to PoliticsHome a report by two academics at Bristol University into last year’s Labour leadership election says the contest could not be described as “free and fair democratic”. The trade unions, it says, created a ‘block vote’ to back Ed Miliband. The authors, Richard Jobson and Mark Wickham-Jones, say that members of Ed’s own campaign admitted that the result created a problem of legitimacy – something that was flagged here at the…

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The boundaries: Is it best for the blues not to do too well?

The boundaries: Is it best for the blues not to do too well?

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Are the local battles about to commence? At midday at Westminster MPs for seats in England will for the first time see the proposals for the the revised boundaries that have been drawn up for the reduced sized house of commons. The total of MPs is being cut-back from 650 to 600 so inevitably there will be losers. Also certain is that the levels of marginality will change. So MPs with relatively comfortable majorities might find that the plan for…

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The ICM poll that the Guardian won’t print

The ICM poll that the Guardian won’t print

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Why the reluctance to reveal the numbers? Three weeks ago today the country’s most accurate pollster when judged against real elections, ICM, was completing its August political poll for the Guardian – something that it has been doing each month for almost a quarter of a century. The numbers showing the very small change on a month earlier are in the chart, CON 37: LAB 36: LD 17, are broadly consistent with what we are used to from the phone…

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The September 11th anniversary – what are your memories?

The September 11th anniversary – what are your memories?

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SkyNews Was it the day that changed the world? Some polling from YouGov earlier in the week found that 91% said they can remember what they were doing when news of the 9/11 attacks broke. This compares with 84% remembering where they were when Princess Diana died, 68% when the 7/7 attacks on the London tube took place, and just 25% when Margaret Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister. That puts it into context. In many ways it was the day…

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It’s almost cross-over point in the White House betting

It’s almost cross-over point in the White House betting

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Betfair Politics How soon before the Republicans are favourites? The chart says it all – the steady decline in the Democratic party’s position in the betting on the 2012 White House race. The numbers are based on the implied probability expressed as a percentage from the latest Betfair prices. The chart itself automatically updates as prices change. I like this market because it shows more how the betting sentiment is moving without naming the runners. This week’s big developments –…

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Technical Note

Technical Note

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Hi all, Over the next three or four days I will be susbstantially upgrading the Political Betting technical infrastructure. For those who care, the big changes are: A new faster, shinier main server An upgrade to the latest version of WordPress A huge upgrade to the Disqus commenting system (you’ll be able to ‘like’ particularly insightful comments, or those from tim or seanT) While I will try and minimise downtime, it’s quite likely that there will be substantial periods when…

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How many of the leaders will still be there on election day?

How many of the leaders will still be there on election day?

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How many of Cameron/Clegg/Miliband will still be leaders of their parties on general election day? None One Two Three      The “poll” above is based on an an intriguing market from PaddyPower on how many of Cameron/Clegg/Miliband will still be leading their parties on the day of the general election. The options and prices are:- None 16/1 One 6/1 Two 6/4 Three 10/11 What I like is that is is just the numbers and not who. So if you…

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