politicalbetting.com

Is the government still failing to justify the need for austerity? November’s news has contained a steady stream of unions announcing that their members have backed strike action in protest against changes to their pension schemes. It has also contained a lot of economic news pointing to a marked slowdown in the economy at home and abroad. Expect these stories to run for months. The first flare-up will come on 30 November when the largest single day of action for…

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Some of you will have noticed that over the past four days we have not been carrying any display advertising from Messagespace. This has been a test to see how much better it makes PB work. The problem is that there’s a down-side – PB loses this revenue stream. One suggestion is that we drop the ads permanently and run a permanent appeal to “Help keep PB Ad-Free”. It would be good if Messagespace could refine their offering so it…

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How frosty is the relationship? I think Marf’s cartoon sums it up brilliantly – the relationship that’s now developed between Angela Merkel and David Cameron. Today’s meeting is clearly important and Cameron really does not have the leeway back home that would allow him to manoeuvre. We’ll see how this develops. If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com @MikeSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson on the political implications With a new film about the life of Margaret Thatcher in the offing, a comedian I’ve never heard of making controversial remarks about her death, the return of Europe as a big political issue, strikes and the prospect of mass unemployment it seems that Margaret Thatcher is back. As Ben Brogan has argued David Cameron has reason to fear unflattering comparisons with the Iron Lady. “The narrative on the backbenches is that Mr…

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How do you cut deficit and protect jobs? Marf’s cartoon this afternoon strikingly illustrates what is becoming the government’s biggest challenge. This week’s numbers are shocking and the phrase “worst since 1994” is going to be heard time and time again. But what’s the answer given the need to maintain the confidence of the markets through the deficit reduction programme? The coalition is helped by Labour’s inability at the moment to articulate a plan that sounds plausible. But ministers cannot…

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Is Peter Kellner right in his conclusion? The latest edition of Prospect Magazine has a fascinating article by YouGov president, Peter Kellner, on a new YouGov poll that shows differing views of the world by those who consider themselves “British” and those who think of themselves as “English”. The detailed figures are quite striking as Kellner explains:- “…Our survey asked people whether they considered themselves mainly as English, Scottish, Welsh, Irish, British or European. A mere 2 per cent said…

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DATE FOR YOUR DIARY The next PB Party has been arranged for December 1st at the Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station in London. An area of the first floor will again be set aside for us and everybody is welcome – lurkers and posters alike. This will be the third Dirty Dicks gathering this year bringing the total of PB parties in 2011 to five. We also had an event in West Sussex as well as one in…

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Have we been here before with Rick, Michelle & Herman? The race for the Republican party nomination for the White House has a familiar pattern to it. Mitt Romney continues to poll in the 20s and every few weeks or so one of the other hopefuls suddenly has a surge only to be thwarted in some form later. We are seeing that with restaurant chain boss, Herman Cain, at the moment. He’s seen his ratings drop after the sexual harassment…

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