Who’ll replace Huhne if he has to step aside? One of the most active betting markets has been on the next cabinet exit. Who is going to the first one of the current 23 members to steo aside for whatever reason. Today’s news that the Sunday Times is not resisting a police demand to hand over material it has on the Chris Huhne speeding points case does not look good for the Lib Dem energy secretary. If, indeed, charges are…
How Gingrich dealt with the ex-wife question If punters are anything to go by then the ex-house speaker’s approach to the ex-wife question are going to help him win Saturday’s crucial South Carolina primary. As I write he is now favourite to win and his price on securing the nomination has tightened. Telephone polling last night by PPP had Gingrich still up 6 points in the state. The big question is whether, as this primary becomes focussed on just two…
What a day we’ve we’had – the YouGov London poll showing Ken ahead; the official result from Iowa that had Santorum as the victor; Rick Perry dropping out and endorsing Gingrich; and, still to come, the much-hyped interview with Newt’s second ex-wife, Marianne. All of these have impacted on the betting. I’m off early to bed. Have a good night in the cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads
Ken’s price moves in sharply after YouGov has him ahead A new YouGov poll finds a sharp swing to Ken in its latest London poll. After handling 2nd preferences Ken is leading Boris by 51 to 49. Last June Boris had an 8 point lead on 54% – 46%. So good news for Ken, Labour and Ed Miliband. A battle that looked lost now looks as though it could be won. Ladbrokes report a steady stream of bets for the…
What’ll be the impact of tonight’s TV interview? The big developing story in the race for the GOP nomination is that an interview with Marianne Gingrich, the ex-house speaker’s second wife, is due to be shown on ABC TV tonight. According to some reports she is said to have remarked that she could “end Newt’s career with a single interview.” This could not come at a more critical time for Newt, only two days before the South Carolina primary where…
I am still in the north-west on family business and haven’t really been following the day’s political moves. I’ve not even watched PMQs or looked at more than a dozen comments on the thread. In the US race there are indications that Newt Gingrich might be moving back again. A new national poll has him just three points behind Mitt – his best rating for a long time. A lot of this came down to Gingrich’s performance in the South…
Betfair Politics Can ANYTHING impede the Boris band-wagon?
RodCrosby publishes his contour map On the overnight thread the long-standing PBer, Rod Crosby, published his contour map of what party vote shares are likely to be required to secure specific outcomes at the next general election with the new boundary proposals. This, he says, is based on the Anthony Wells notionals, with some adjustments for “LD incumbency, SNP surge, Shinners take 5 and SDLP 2”. The “Shinners” point refers to Sinn Fein members who have a tradition of not…