Newt takes 8% Florida lead in first post SC poll After Saturday’s massive defeat for Mitt Romney in South Carolina all eyes are now on Florida where the primary takes place a week tomorrow. The “Sunshine State” is on a different scale compared with the primaries so far with more delegates at stake than in all the three early states combined. Things were looking good for Mitt there. He had built up an impressive ground organisation and he and the…
Will ICM back-up the latest YouGov? Today is January 22nd and the only VI polls that we’ve seen this year have been online – all but one of them from YouGov. So before rushing to judgement on the latest from YouGov – 41/36/9 – let’s wait till we see if the same trend of a substantial Tory lead is seen in the monthly phone polls that should be due out in the next few days. If ICM and Ipsos-MORI are…
Has the 2008 Veep choice now made it 2 out of 2? The massive 13 point victory for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina overnight represents one of the most remarkable turnarounds ever seen. It makes a mockery of the polling only a few days before the election and shows the incredible power of momentum in primary campaigns. It re-shapes the fight for the GOP nomination and puts big question marks over Mitt Romney’s apparently inevitable victory. It also means it…
Voting’s about to end in the South Carolina – the state that is usually third in line in each primary season and the state which ALWAYS in modern times chooses the eventual GOP winner. A week ago this looked a certainty for Mitt. Now it could be going the other way. Polls close at midnight UK time and CNN should give us their exit poll prediction shortly after. There’ve been hints on their programme already that they could call the…
Clegg moves ahead of Ed in the ComRes leader ratings A ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday andSunday Mirror tomorrow suggests that Labour would do better if David Miliband were leader — although the difference is only three points. The normal voting intention figures (how would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow) are: CON 38% +2 LAB 38%  -2 LD 13%  -1 OTH 11%  +1 (Change since last ComRes/IoS/S Mirror online poll in December.) Comres then asked how people would…
How crucial are next week’s figures? The provisional growth figures for the last quarter of 2011 will be published next Wednesday and will be keenly anticipated and picked over by media and politicians alike because of the prediction by the ITEM club report[1] this week that the UK was probably already in a recession. Recessions require at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth and as yet, we’ve not had one, never mind two. Even so, if the ONS publish…
But could there still be a surprise? It’s voting day in the Republican primary in South Carolina and the latest telephone poll, from PPP, suggests that the ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich is going to win by a big margin. The figures are Newt 37%: Mitt 28%: Santorum 16%: Paul 14%. The survey took place over three days and the responses from those interviewed yesterday, after the final debate and the TV interview with Gingrich’s second ex-wife, had a split of…
What are other bookies doing about Iowa? Has anybody had any correspondence that might be helpful? I still await a response from Betfair. I’m still in the north-west where I’ve been in family business but will be heading back down the M1 tomorrow. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads