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RodCrosby publishes his contour map On the overnight thread the long-standing PBer, Rod Crosby, published his contour map of what party vote shares are likely to be required to secure specific outcomes at the next general election with the new boundary proposals. This, he says, is based on the Anthony Wells notionals, with some adjustments for “LD incumbency, SNP surge, Shinners take 5 and SDLP 2”. The “Shinners” point refers to Sinn Fein members who have a tradition of not…

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I am visiting the north-west on family business for a few days and have not had much chance to follow the media or PB. It’s amazing how out of touch you can get just by not sitting in front of your computer for half a day. Have a good evening in the PB NightHawks cafe – your place to talk. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Betfair Politics The current Mitt Romney price is 1.56/1. Obama is 0.85/1.

Guardian Where’s the infighting going to end? The main front-page story in the Guardian is an attack by UNITE boss, Len McCluskey, on the way that the Two Eds are running the party. He also talks of the possibility of a “Blairite coup”. This is from Patrick Wintour’s report:- “…The Labour party’s chief union backer has accused Ed Miliband of undermining his own leadership, disenfranchising the party’s core support and leaving the country with all three main parties bent on…

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It’s warm here and the conversation is good Welcome to our regular overnight thread where the idea is that we are a bit more relaxed. If you’ve not posted before then why not do so tonight? It really is quite easy and the broader the range of views the better. Have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Daily Mail Why’s the Welsh Secretary still there? I guess I’m like many PBers who got on Cheryl Gillan in the next cabinet exit betting market following Henry G Manson’s piece on PB in November. In it he highlighted of the commitments she had made both before and after the general election. She was then 8/1 but that moved very sharply to 7/4. It seemed a no brainer. Alas even though the route does go through the heart of her…

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Based on data from Nate Silver’s 538 blogs/NYT Will the race be down to three by Saturday? The big news overnight in the race for the GOP nomination to fight Barack Obama is that John Huntsman is withdrawing. The news was hardly a surprise given he’s said all along that his continuation in the race depended on his showing in New Hampshire last Tuesday. In the end he came third in the state on just under 17% and the surprise…

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Something for PB Nighthawks – a bit early