The open thread – PB NightHawks
Welcome once again to the cafe – our informal overnight thread where you set the agenda. @MikeSmithsonOGH
CON drops sharply with ICM: LAB back in lead
The first telephone poll of the month, ICM for the Guardian is out and sees the Tory five point lead of last month become a one point LAB lead tonight. This follows a difficult period for the coalition particularly on the Lansley health bill. On that 52% say that the bill should be dropped with 33% saying the plans should be stuck to. Whatever the apparent splits within the blue, reported by Tim Montgomerie at ConHome, are clearly not helping….
On the day of the big NHS meeting – the Marf view
Recent Threads
Romney closes the gap by 11pc in Michigan
But Santorum has 22% lead in favourability ratings There’s a new poll out from Public Policy Polling on next week’s crucial Michigan primary which many pundits are suggesting could be the most decisive of the whole nomination campaign. This is, of course, Romney’s home state where his father was once governor and which he won comfortably in the primary in 2008. He really needs a victory there to head off his critics. As can be seen from the numbers Santorum…
Betfair says NON to French Presidential betting
Can Sarkozy make up a double digit deficit? So far we’ve hardly covered on PB the big election in Europe this year – the battle for the French presidency – which takes place in only a couple of months. This is a huge contest as Nicolas Sarkozy attempts to hold on against a fierce challenge by socialist leader, Francois Hollande, and will get lots of media attention in the UK. Last time there was a lot of interest in the…
Jeb Bush moves to 3rd FAV after senator’s warning about Mitt
How serious is this? There’ve been dramatic moves in the Republican nomination betting during the past few hours which have seen the price on the former governor of Texas, Jeb Bush, move in from 70/1 on Betfair to about 20/1 now. This put the brother of the last Republican party president into the third favourite slot for the nomination behind Romney and Santorum even though he is not a declared runner and is not on the ballots in any of…
CON in lead with ComRes for first time since 2010
The one change is within the margin of error.The only noteworthy thing is that this is the first time since October 2010 that the blues have led the reds. This poll by ComRes online for te Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is the first non-YouGov survey this month. Unless there’s a major upset the general election takes place on May 7 2015 and I doubt if these numbers will affect any betting markets. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Roger’s annual guide to the Oscars
Will he be a winner once again? An unusual year with more famous names than I can remember, two inexplicable omissions (‘Senna’ and Tilda Swinton) and a silent movie which could sweep the board. Talking of omissions congratulations to Mrs ‘Marquee Mark’ for her work on Coriolanus. As good a film of a shakespeare play as I’ve seen which could easily have been nominated in up to three categories. So here are the nominations followed by my two euros worth……..