politicalbetting.com

How crucial are next week’s figures? The provisional growth figures for the last quarter of 2011 will be published next Wednesday and will be keenly anticipated and picked over by media and politicians alike because of the prediction by the ITEM club report[1] this week that the UK was probably already in a recession. Recessions require at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth and as yet, we’ve not had one, never mind two. Even so, if the ONS publish…

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But could there still be a surprise? It’s voting day in the Republican primary in South Carolina and the latest telephone poll, from PPP, suggests that the ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich is going to win by a big margin. The figures are Newt 37%: Mitt 28%: Santorum 16%: Paul 14%. The survey took place over three days and the responses from those interviewed yesterday, after the final debate and the TV interview with Gingrich’s second ex-wife, had a split of…

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What are other bookies doing about Iowa? Has anybody had any correspondence that might be helpful? I still await a response from Betfair. I’m still in the north-west where I’ve been in family business but will be heading back down the M1 tomorrow. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Who’ll replace Huhne if he has to step aside? One of the most active betting markets has been on the next cabinet exit. Who is going to the first one of the current 23 members to steo aside for whatever reason. Today’s news that the Sunday Times is not resisting a police demand to hand over material it has on the Chris Huhne speeding points case does not look good for the Lib Dem energy secretary. If, indeed, charges are…

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How Gingrich dealt with the ex-wife question If punters are anything to go by then the ex-house speaker’s approach to the ex-wife question are going to help him win Saturday’s crucial South Carolina primary. As I write he is now favourite to win and his price on securing the nomination has tightened. Telephone polling last night by PPP had Gingrich still up 6 points in the state. The big question is whether, as this primary becomes focussed on just two…

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What a day we’ve we’had – the YouGov London poll showing Ken ahead; the official result from Iowa that had Santorum as the victor; Rick Perry dropping out and endorsing Gingrich; and, still to come, the much-hyped interview with Newt’s second ex-wife, Marianne. All of these have impacted on the betting. I’m off early to bed. Have a good night in the cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Ken’s price moves in sharply after YouGov has him ahead A new YouGov poll finds a sharp swing to Ken in its latest London poll. After handling 2nd preferences Ken is leading Boris by 51 to 49. Last June Boris had an 8 point lead on 54% – 46%. So good news for Ken, Labour and Ed Miliband. A battle that looked lost now looks as though it could be won. Ladbrokes report a steady stream of bets for the…

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What’ll be the impact of tonight’s TV interview? The big developing story in the race for the GOP nomination is that an interview with Marianne Gingrich, the ex-house speaker’s second wife, is due to be shown on ABC TV tonight. According to some reports she is said to have remarked that she could “end Newt’s career with a single interview.” This could not come at a more critical time for Newt, only two days before the South Carolina primary where…

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