Betfair Politics A guest slot by Tim Trevan (TimT) Pundits both sides of the Atlantic gave Romney the GOP nomination two weeks ago. PB’s own survey had close to 90% saying it was his, with most saying he would win both Iowa and New Hampshire in addition. At the time, I railed against such implied certainty, saying that Paul would win Iowa, Romney New Hampshire and Newt the nomination. I did so not because I was sure that would be…
ICM has CON 5% ahead while Populus gives LAB a 1% lead It’s been a huge day of polling on both sides of the Atlantic and I’m only now catching up with the first UK telephone polls of 2012. ICM had with changes on December – CON 40%(+3): LAB 35%(-1): LD 16%(+1) . So a CON-LAB gap exactly the same as YouGov yesterday but with very different shares for the LDs. Populus for the Times has with changes on last…
But will inner or outer London prevail? There’s a new London online poll from ComRes which like last week’s YouGov survey has Ken just ahead. The margin in Ken’s favour is slightly larger than above. Without the rounding the gap is 3% The poll shows that in inner London the split is 68-32 to Ken while in outer London it is 57-43 to Boris. What could be critical are differing turnout levels. Ken is doing a lot better with younger…
Newt takes 8% Florida lead in first post SC poll After Saturday’s massive defeat for Mitt Romney in South Carolina all eyes are now on Florida where the primary takes place a week tomorrow. The “Sunshine State” is on a different scale compared with the primaries so far with more delegates at stake than in all the three early states combined. Things were looking good for Mitt there. He had built up an impressive ground organisation and he and the…
Will ICM back-up the latest YouGov? Today is January 22nd and the only VI polls that we’ve seen this year have been online – all but one of them from YouGov. So before rushing to judgement on the latest from YouGov – 41/36/9 – let’s wait till we see if the same trend of a substantial Tory lead is seen in the monthly phone polls that should be due out in the next few days. If ICM and Ipsos-MORI are…
Has the 2008 Veep choice now made it 2 out of 2? The massive 13 point victory for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina overnight represents one of the most remarkable turnarounds ever seen. It makes a mockery of the polling only a few days before the election and shows the incredible power of momentum in primary campaigns. It re-shapes the fight for the GOP nomination and puts big question marks over Mitt Romney’s apparently inevitable victory. It also means it…
Voting’s about to end in the South Carolina – the state that is usually third in line in each primary season and the state which ALWAYS in modern times chooses the eventual GOP winner. A week ago this looked a certainty for Mitt. Now it could be going the other way. Polls close at midnight UK time and CNN should give us their exit poll prediction shortly after. There’ve been hints on their programme already that they could call the…
Clegg moves ahead of Ed in the ComRes leader ratings A ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday andSunday Mirror tomorrow suggests that Labour would do better if David Miliband were leader — although the difference is only three points. The normal voting intention figures (how would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow) are: CON 38% +2 LAB 38%  -2 LD 13%  -1 OTH 11%  +1 (Change since last ComRes/IoS/S Mirror online poll in December.) Comres then asked how people would…