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Some ugly polls for Gingrich this morning. Our forecast has Romney +13 in Florida, 95% chance of winning. nyti.ms/ywKYEp — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 29, 2012 Last Sunday he was 8% ahead With Florida going into its final day of campaigning tomorrow it looks pretty certain that Mitt Romney will chalk up his second victory which should, surely, provide him with a solid platform to go forward. Nate Silver has produced his latest forecast – 95% chance of a Romney…

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And Miliband moves up from last week’s record low This week’s leader ratings from YouGov are just out and all three main party leaders see improvements on a week ago. Camerons “Well/Badly” figures are 46/47 making a net minus 1. Last week it was minus 3. Ed Miliband is on 20/68 which is a net minus 48 compared to 53 last weekend. The improvement is still not enough to be scoring better than Nick Clegg who has had the best…

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… The big news today, of course, has been that the chairman of RBS, Sir Philip Hampton has given up a £1.4m shares bonus due next month. This will probably end the row which has caused problems for both government and opposition. Meanwhile it costs nothing to join tonight’s conversation in the PB NightHawks cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Mitt up by around 10 points on the first round of calls for our Florida poll…this one may end up being a snooze — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 Santorum has the best favorability numbers out of all the candidates in Florida but still not picking up much support — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 28, 2012 Bc he’s so well liked everywhere I think Santorum would actually be biggest long term threat to Mitt, but Newt would have to get out…

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Could Dave seal the first Tory working majority since 1987? One market sadly missing at the moment that on which punters can predict how many seats a party will win at the next election. Before 2010, odds could be had both on the exchanges and with bookies, and punters could also buy and sell seats on the now defunct Spreadfair. That’s a shame because there’s a great deal of uncertainty about what might happen in 2015 – or perhaps earlier…

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… This is, of course, PB’s regular overnight open thread where all things political are discussed. Welcome to the cafe – have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Does the boss of ICM have a point? Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward” question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed to get a particular outcome. According to the Telegraph the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, said the question was simple but added that his company…

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Was the latest debate Gingrich’s last stand? These were the reactions of Nate Silver, the prominent US election and polling analyst, to the final TV debate in Florida ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. Grades (strategy/execution): Romney (A/A); Santorum (A-/A); Paul (B-/C); Gingrich (D-/B) — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012 Could envision an outcome in Florida like Romney 45, Gingrich 25, Santorum 20,Paul 10 — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012 There’s little doubt that the big loser was last…

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