After his Florida thumping Newt says he staying As expected Mitt Romney won Florida overnight with a fourteen point victory. It was a huge result for the ex-governor of Massachusetts and one, surely, that makes it even more likely that he’ll be the nominee. But Newt was defiant an hour or so ago. The big message, as seen in the posters in the pictures, was “46 States To Go” – a statement that suggests that he is going to stick…
LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above. Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%. The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got The…
… How big will Mitt win by tonight? It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double digit lead Well after facing probably the biggest onslaught of negative advertising ever in a primary and having two mediocre debate performances the outlook for…
NO voters say they are less likely to change their mind A new telephone poll of Scottish voters by Ipsos-MORI for the Times puts support for independence at 39% – which is just one point up on the firm’s last poll in December. The question that was put was the one proposed last week by Alex Salmond – “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” and which has caused some controversy. In the December poll MORI asked…
… Welcome and join tonight’s big political conversation Here are a couple of tweets from with the past half hour. Speculation in Brussels that Cam is delayed because he is having to clear his lines with Clegg — Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) January 30, 2012 Santorum and Gingrich both beat Romney 1 on 1 in Ohio and Missouri. One will have to drop out if Mitt’s going to be stopped — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) January 30, 2012 Have a good evening….
Is he in danger of losing losing the E-petition war? Back in the summer Guido launched a campaign to get capital punishment restored for certain cases of serious murder and he set up a petition on the Number 10 e-petitions site. The aim was to reach the threshold of 100,000 within six months so it would become eligible to be debated in the commons. His move received a fair bit of attention in the media and also prompted a rival…
Should the franchise be extended? With suggestions from the SNP that the franchise should be extended to 16 year olds in the referendum there was a good article over the weekend by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. He sifts through what polling there is and concludes “…we cannot presume that the opinions of younger people on independence are in fact particularly distinctive at all.” Curtice goes on:“…But whatever their views, 16 and 17-year-olds can only possibly make a difference…
Some ugly polls for Gingrich this morning. Our forecast has Romney +13 in Florida, 95% chance of winning. nyti.ms/ywKYEp — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 29, 2012 Last Sunday he was 8% ahead With Florida going into its final day of campaigning tomorrow it looks pretty certain that Mitt Romney will chalk up his second victory which should, surely, provide him with a solid platform to go forward. Nate Silver has produced his latest forecast – 95% chance of a Romney…