Is the system being gamed to by-pass the voters? After his three disastrous defeats on Tuesday Mitt Romney ended up on top, by just 194 votes, in the Maine caucuses overnight just ahead of Ron Paul. The state neighbours Massachusetts so Mitt was expected to do well but it was always clear that Ron Paul was a serious threat. The total number of voters in the entire state was just 5,594 and the split was Mitt 39%, Paul 36%, Santorum…
Will this be Ron Paul’s night in Maine? The state nominating contests are coming thick and fast at the moment and tonight we should get the result of a Maine caucuses. These have been going on for a week so began before Mitt Romney suffered his three-pronged blow on Tuesday night. The big factor is that turnout is incredibly low which provides a great opportunity for Ron Paul’s hyper-active support base. There’s a good piece here by Mark Blumenthal and…
But will the boost from Tuesday’s election last? There’s a new national poll of Republican primary voters just out and, as can be seen from above, has Rick Santorum taking a huge 15% lead over the former front-runner, Mitt Romney. This is the first full national poll to be reported since Tuesday three nominating contests in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota which were all won by the ex-senator from Pennsylvania. When asked “If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt…
…. What is his least worst option and will he pick it? The Conservatives entered the 2010 election campaign with ambitious plans to make significant reforms to the NHS, education provision and welfare and benefits – three of the biggest spending departments of government – on top of tackling the deficit and re-establishing economic stability after the biggest boom and bust since the War. It would have been an ambitious agenda for a single-party government with a majority. In retrospect,…
But will he survive the expected Romney negative barrage? A new poll from American Research Group ahead of the March 6 Tennessee primary suggests that Rick Santorum, has a clear margin over Romney. He’s on 34%, Mitt on 27%, Newt at 16% and Paul on 13%. The fieldwork was all carried out after the outcomes in this week’s three state nominating contests were known and clearly he’s getting a boost. What’s significant about Tennessee is that this was a state…
Can he survive if his plans are scrapped? According to the Guardian ConservtiveHome will be publishing an editorial today calling for Andrew Lansley’s NHS bill to be scrapped. The report by Patrick Wintour and Juliette Jowit goes on: “It is understood that Conservative Home has been urged to make the call by three cabinet members who believe David Cameron is not listening on the issue. One source said: “We have almost been instructed to write this.” It is extraordinary that…
Once again welcome to PBs regular overnight thread where the emphasis is on the informal. After staying up all night on Tuesday I’m still a bit knackered and won’t be joining the conversation – but have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Is it now ConHome versus Lansley’s NHS changes? Can the healthsec survive if the plans are scrapped? bit.ly/y99RIG — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) February 10, 2012
Betfair Politics The chart shows Betfair’s changing prices on which party will win the November White House race. The graph says it all – since the Republican nomination started in the first week of January the betting has moved more and more towards Barack Obama and, as I write, the price is 8/15. There have recently been one or two good pieces of economic news for the White House The latest unemployment numbers were a real positive. A big factor,…